Global Ag News for Jan 25.23

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina rains surpass forecasts, but showers uneven -grains exchange

Recent rains in Argentina surpassed the “most optimistic” forecasts, the Rosario grains exchange said on Tuesday, a boost for grains farmers in the country hit by drought, though rainfall was unevenly spread and more is needed.

Argentina, the world’s top exporter of processed soy and No. 3 for corn, has been battling one of the worst droughts in decades that has hammered crop harvest forecasts.

Recent rain has brought some relief, and although it was too late for the country’s wheat crop, it could help support 2022/23 soy and corn yields.

“Argentina, undergoing the most significant drought in the last 60 years, received higher rainfall volumes than expected,” the exchange said in a report.

It were said the most intense rain storms had been over La Pampa, northwest of Buenos Aires and finally in Salta, with 127 millimeters (5 inches) in the provincial capital.

Overall, however, only 15% of the Pampas region received rainfall above the key level of 45 mm. The Buenos Aires area received 15%, La Pampa 10%, Santa Fe 5% and Cordoba 3%. Some areas got none at all.

“The variability was extreme. There are locations with more than 100 mm and others where it did not rain,” the exchange said.

“To reverse the state of drought and move to optimal reserves in the soil, the (regions) would need precipitation values of 160 to 180 millimeters.”

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 10 1/4 in SRW, up 12 1/2 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $0.15; Soyoil down 0.36.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 1/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 26; Soymeal down $0.54; Soyoil down 1.35.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 47 1/4 in SRW, down 41 3/4 in HRW, down 27 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 43 1/2; Soymeal down $12.70; Soyoil down 3.45.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.0% in SRW, down 4.7% in HRW, down 2.9% in HRS; Corn is up 0.0%; Soybeans down 2.6%; Soymeal down 4.2%; Soyoil down 5.0%. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 139 ringgit (-3.57%) at 3753.

China markets remain closed for Holiday.

There were changes in registrations (-11 Soybeans, -68 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,783 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 154 Corn; 1,039 Soybeans; 479 Soyoil; 62 Soymeal; 192 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 24 were: SRW Wheat down 3,526 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,881, Corn up 11,791, Soybeans up 7,108, Soymeal down 551, Soyoil up 3,389.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Northern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, well below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures well below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers north Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to well below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures well below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday, near to well below normal Monday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Jan. 24 had funds: net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,000 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 130,000 tonnes of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2022.
• WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer issued a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat with participation restricted to a limited number of trading houses.
• RAPESEED MEAL TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 40,000 tonnes of rapeseed meal sourced from India

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 19,000 tonnes of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs).
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in Japan by March 16, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Jan. 25

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 20 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.014m b/d
• Would be the third straight weekly increase after falling to a 22-month low in the week of Dec. 30
• Stockpile avg est. 23.637m bbl vs 23.402m a week ago

S&P Global sees U.S. 2023 corn seedings at 90.5 mln acres, document shows

S&P Global Commodity Insights, formerly known as IHS Markit Agribusiness, projected that U.S. farmers would plant 90.504 million acres of corn in 2023, up 2.2% from the previous year, according to portions of a Jan. 23 S&P client note seen by Reuters.

• S&P Global forecast 2023 U.S. soybean plantings at 88.0 million acres, up 0.6% from the 87.450 million acres seeded in 2022.
• All-wheat plantings for 2023 were seen at 49.837 million acres, up from the 45.738 million acres planted for 2022.
• The firm’s all-wheat total included 36.950 million acres of winter wheat, matching the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Jan. 12 seedings estimate, which was up 11.1% from the prior year.
• S&P projected 2023 seedings of spring wheat (excluding durum) at 11.200 million acres, up 3.4% from the 10.835 million acres seeded in 2022.
• Durum wheat plantings were seen at 1.687 million acres, up from the 1.632 million acres planted in 2022.
• Sorghum plantings for 2023 were projected at 6.570 million acres, up 3.9% from the 6.325 million planted in 2022.
• S&P projected 2023 all-cotton plantings at 10.892 million acres, down from the 13.763 million total cotton acres that U.S. farmers planted in 2022.

EU 2022/23 soybean imports at 6.08 mln T, rapeseed 4.26 mln T

European Union soybean imports in the 2022/23 season that started in July had reached 6.08 million tonnes by Jan. 22, down 19% from 7.47 million by the same week in the previous season, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports so far in 2022/23 had reached 4.26 million tonnes, up 41% compared with 3.02 million tonnes a year earlier.

Soymeal imports over the same period totalled 8.95 million tonnes, 2.5% below a year-earlier 9.18 million, while palm oil imports stood at 1.89 million tonnes, down 39% from 3.11 million by the same week in 2021/22.

However, the Commission said that it was still experiencing problems compiling trade figures from Germany and Italy.

Export data submitted by Germany from November may be inaccurate following the country’s switch to a new declaration system, while for Italy import data was available only until the end of November, it said in a note.

The next weekly grain and oilseed trade data will be published on Wednesday Feb. 1, a day later than usual, the Commision added.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 6.1% Y/y; Corn Imports Top 16m Tons

EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 18.1m tons as of Jan. 22, compared with 17.1m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (2.7m tons), Algeria (2.31m tons), and Egypt (1.63m tons)
• EU barley exports were 3.09m tons, compared with 5.17m tons a year earlier
• Corn imports were 16.1m tons, against 8.91m tons a year earlier
• NOTE: Next report to be issued Feb. 1, instead of usual Tuesday release
• NOTE: The commission says some export figures for Germany may be inaccurate due to its recent shift to a new declaration system
• Also, Italian import data is only available until end-November

India’s March quarter palm oil imports could drop 29% as stocks rise-dealers

• March qtr imports seen at 2.2 mln T vs 3.1 mln T
• Vegetable oil stocks jump to record 3.2 mln T
• Palm oil’s discount to soyoil falls, makes it less lucrative

India’s palm oil imports could drop 29% in the March quarter from the previous quarter as record inventories and weak demand prompt refiners to curtail purchases and focus on liquidating stocks, five dealers told Reuters.

Lower purchases by the world’s biggest buyer of palm oil could weigh on Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3, which have nearly halved from their all time peak hit in 2022.

Palm oil imports in the March quarter could fall to 2.2 million tonnes, down from 3.1 million tonnes in December quarter, the average estimate from five trading firms showed.

“Indian refiners aggressively bought palm oil in December quarter, but now imports would slow down as they would first try to clear inventories,” said Anilkumar Bagani, research head at Sunvin Group, a Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage.

Vegetable oil stocks in India have jumped to a record 3.2 million tonnes at the start of January from 1.7 million tonnes a year ago, estimates trade body Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

Monthly palm oil imports could be 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes in the March quarter and unlikely to cross 1 million tonnes like in the last quarter, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research.

Refiners could increase buying of soyoil and sunflower oil in the March quarter as New Delhi has allowed duty free imports, Patel said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Palm oil’s discount to rival soyoil has been narrowing and made it less lucrative for buyers, said a New-Delhi based dealer with a global trade house.

The discount jumped to as much as $500 per tonne in the December quarter, but now the discount has come down to around $270, dealers said.

Demand for palm oil has also been affected by the winter season, said a Mumbai-based dealer.

India’s palm oil demand usually moderates during winter months as the tropical oil solidifies at lower temperatures.

Germany considering withdrawal from crop-based biofuels by 2030- lobby

Germany’s government is considering proposals to phase out the use of biofuels produced from food or animal feed crops by 2030, the German biofuels industry association (VDB) said on Tuesday, adding the measure could increase carbon emissions.

German environment minister Steffi Lemke said on Jan. 17 she will soon send proposals to the cabinet to withdraw from use of crop-based biofuels in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Lemke had said previously in May 2022 she wanted to turn the country away from crop-based biofuels, instead intensifying the use of biofuels produced from garbage, wastes and used edible oil.

Lemke and German agriculture minister Cem Oezdemir, both members of the Green party in Germany’s ruling coalition, have in the past called for the end of food crops in biofuel production, saying food is too valuable to be used for fuel output.

The VDB, however, said draft proposals to cut crop-based biofuel use would mean an increase in Germany’s transport carbon dioxide emissions by around 32 million tonnes up to 2030.

Under Germany’s climate protection law, only 85 million tonnes of CO2 may be emitted by transport in 2030. In 2021, Germany’s transport sector emitted about 148 million tonnes of CO2, according to figures from the environment ministry.

Lemke’s office was not immediately available to comment on the VDB’s claim.

Germany’s programme to cut greenhouse gases includes the use of blending biofuels including biodiesel and bioethanol with diesel and gasoline to reduce emissions from road vehicles.

Oil companies have a greenhouse gas reduction target which they partly achieve with biodiesel often made from rapeseed oil or waste vegetable oils and bioethanol produced at times from grains or sugar.

The proposals would promote the use of more fossil fuels in road transport, said association CEO Elmar Baumann.

Just over 500,000 hectares of Germany’s total winter rapeseed area of 1.07 million hectares is used in most years for biodiesel. Reports of a phasing out of crops for biofuel production caused a fall in EU rapeseed prices in past days. GRA/EU

Germany previously announced it will ban palm oil use in biofuel production from 2023.

Indonesia 2022 Palm Oil Exports Fall 8.5% to 30.8M Tons: Gapki

Total palm oil output was 51.2m tons in 2022, little changed from the previous year, according to latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, known as Gapki.

• Output is expected to stay stagnant in 2023 amid rising fertilizer costs, Gapki Chairman Joko Supriyono says in a briefing on Wednesday
• CPO output fell 0.34% to 46.7m tons in 2022, while Crude Palm Kernel Oil output was 4.5m tons
• Palm oil ending stockpiles 3.65m tons
  • Indonesia’s move to temporarily ban palm oil exports resulted in high stockpiles during the period: Supriyono
• Domestic consumption of palm oil +13.82% to 20.9m tons in 2022, with its use for food rising 11% to 9.94m tons and its use in biodiesel +20.43% to 8.84m tons
  • Consumption may continue to increase this year
• The B35 biodiesel mandate requiring palm oil mix in the fuel takes effect on Feb. 1

Indonesia to Cut Feb. 1-15 CPO Reference Price, Export Duties

Govt. to set crude palm oil reference price at $879.31/ton for Feb. 1-15 period, a decline from $920.57/ton for the last two weeks of January, says Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at the coordinating ministry for economic affairs in a text message.

CPO export tax will be cut to $52/ton during the period, and the additional levy to be set at $90/ton

Indonesia to make exporters hold FX earnings onshore for 3 months -media

Indonesia plans to introduce a requirement for exporters to keep their foreign exchange earnings in the local banking industry for three months, a top government official was cited by media as saying on Wednesday.

The government was discussing the plan with the central bank and a review on current requirements for export earnings was nearly complete, Airlangga Hartarto, the chief economics minister, was quoted as saying by mainstream media outlets.

His ministry’s spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

He earlier this month said Indonesia was considering revising a 2019 regulation that mandated exporters of natural resources keep earnings in a special account at domestic banks, including the possibility of setting a minimum holding period. He also said it might be expanded to cover exporters in the manufacturing sector.

Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal and palm oil. It is also a major exporter of nickel, tin, copper, and rubber, among other commodities.

Separately, Bank Indonesia (BI) is aiming to launch a new FX instrument for banks next month.

Banks will be allowed to pass on exporters’ deposits to the central bank and BI will pay a premium interest rate for the U.S. dollar to encourage exporters to keep earnings onshore for longer, monetary policymakers said.