Global Ag News for Jan 21 22

TODAY – EXPORT SALES, COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil up 0.29.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 44 in SRW, up 48 1/2 in HRW, up 64 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/2; Soybeans up 52 3/4; Soymeal down $0.78; Soyoil up 4.71. For the month to date wheat prices are up 14 3/4 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 39 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 16 1/2; Soybeans up 83 1/4; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil up 6.64.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 50 yuan ; Soymeal up 36; Soyoil up 118; Palm oil up 80; Corn up 1 — Malasyian Palm is up 136. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 136 ringgit (+2.62%) at 5323.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 21 Oats; 50 Corn; 316 Soybeans; 143 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 20 were: SRW Wheat up 4,018 contracts, HRW Wheat up 777, Corn up 7,691, Soybeans up 17,763, Soymeal up 846, Soyoil up 7,969.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

The player sheet for Jan. 20 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, unchanged 0 corn, sellers of 19,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 9,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO bought an estimated 345,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in an international tender for the same volume on Thursday
• BARLEY SALE: Algerian state agency OAIC is believed to have purchased some 205,000 tonnes of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 72,351 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT SALE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 49,395 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice which closed on Sunday was $421.99 a tonne CIF liner out, officials and traders said. Offers are still being considered and no purchase had yet been made, they said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 46,344 tonnes of rice to be mainly sourced from China with some from Thailand
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Jan. 13.

• Corn est. range 475k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 806k
• Soybean est. range 600k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 916k

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Jan. 20: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2021-22 Soybean and corn area estimates maintained
• Corn planting at 88% complete, soybeans at 95%
• Area estimates maintained for both crops
• The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

Swaths of Argentina Soy Farms Need More Rain, Exchange Says

Rains in the past few days have mitigated the deterioration of some plants, but large areas still need more water, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in its weekly crop report.

• Drought expected to curb yields for earliest-planted beans in the key part of the growing belt, known as “zona nucleo,” by 20%
• Late-planted beans in the zona nucleo also developing poorly
• 52% of soy plants are growing in poor-to-dry moisture conditions, versus 60% last week, according to a separate exchange report
• The rains have helped late-planted corn, but the early crop has nevertheless continued to deteriorate
• NOTE: 47% of corn is “early” and 53% is “late”

Rains Seen Over Next Week for Drought-Hit Argentine Soy, Corn

Much of the heart of the Pampas growing belt, known as the “zona nucleo,” will get more than 100mm (3.9 inches) of rain over the next 7 days, according to maps published in a weekly Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weather report.

• The following week (Jan. 27-Feb. 2) will be dry, with no more than 10mm for the zona nucleo
• NOTE: The new precipitation would follow rains in recent days that have already interrupted a drought on parched farms

Malaysia Jan. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports to India 145,930 Tons: SGS

• India imported 145,930 tons; -14.2% m/m
• EU imported 130,675 tons; -50.7% m/m

Informa Projects US Soybean Acres to Exceed Corn

Planted acreage of soybeans in the US is projected to exceed corn for the second time in history, says Farm Progress, a division of Informa. According to the firm, planted acres are expected to hit 92.38 million acres in 2022, which is up nearly 6% from last year. Meanwhile, corn acres are expected to slide nearly 3 million acres to 90.39 million acres. If this holds true, it’ll be the first time since 2018 and second time overall that US farmers have planted more soybeans than corn. “If realized, the data points to the largest soybean crop on record, surpassing 2017’s record of 90.2 million acres,” says the firm. Higher input costs, particularly for fertilizer, is making soybeans a more attractive crop for farmers than corn.

India’s Rapeseed Output Seen Surging to Record on Higher Sowing

Production will likely climb to record 12m tons in 2021-22 as higher local prices prompted farmers to sow the crop on a larger area, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Favorable weather and high prices prompted some farmers to shift from wheat
• NOTE: The area under rapeseed climbed to 9.05m hectares as of Jan. 14, from 7.29m hectares a year ago: farm ministry

Indonesia May Set Local Mandatory Portion of Palm Oil Exports

Indonesia may soon impose a mandatory portion of exports that producers must set aside for the domestic market to ensure a sufficient supply of cooking oil, says Indrasari Wisnu Wardhana, director general of foreign trade at the trade ministry on Friday.

• “If there is no improvement in the domestic supply situation, we will issue a policy that makes it mandatory for exporters to supply to the local market,” says Wardhana
• Currently, exporters are allowed to set their own percentage of exports that are sold locally
• Under a new regulation to be imposed starting Jan. 24, exporters are obliged to submit details of their export plans and the local supply portions for the next six months
  • If the portion is too small and the amount unreasonable in comparison to their export volumes, the ministry can deny the export permit
  • Export permits will be issued based on the assessment and are valid for six months

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports Jump 25% M/m in Dec.: Intertek

Indonesia shipped 1.8m tons of palm oil overseas in December, a 25% increase from the previous month, according to surveyor Intertek Testing Services in an emailed statement on Friday.

• Dec. shipments by grade:
  • 37,380 tons of crude palm oil
  • 640,980 tons of RBD palm olein
  • 545,847 tons of RBD palm oil
• Dec. versus Nov. sales by destination:
  • European Union at 351,109 tons vs. 413,893 tons
  • India and subcontinent at 339,064 tons vs. 260,897 tons
  • China at 224,044 tons vs. 281,919 tons

The Fertilizer Crisis Is Getting Real For European Food Prices

• Farmers may have to use less nutrients or pass on the costs
• Gas crisis, export restrictions hit nitrogen fertilizer supply

As Europe’s farmers prepare to spread fertilizers on fields after winter, sky-high nutrient prices are leaving them little choice but to use less and try to pass on the cost down the food chain.

For growers of staples like corn and wheat, it’s the first time they’ve really been exposed to a fertilizer crisis fueled by an energy crunch, export curbs and trade sanctions. It now costs much more to buy chemicals needed for winter crops coming out of dormancy, and the extra expense could prompt smaller spring plantings that make up roughly a third of European grain.

Europe has been hardest hit by fertilizer-plant cutbacks on soaring costs of gas used to run them — and nutrient prices there remain at a record even as the pressure eased in North America. Europe could face a deficit of about 9% of its annual nitrogen-fertilizer needs in the first half, VTB Capital estimates. Food may get even pricier if harvests suffer or crop prices rise.

Many farmers yet to secure chemicals are either waiting until the last minute in case prices ease, or may spread them more thinly.

Farm exports expected to touch record $50 billion

India’s farm exports are likely to touch a record $50 billion in FY22, led by a sharp growth in shipments of rice and marine, meat and poultry items, according to officials.

In FY21, India had exported farm products worth $41.25 billion, up 17% from $35.16 billion in 2019-20.

Export of rice is likely to touch $9.5 billion in value terms, accounting for about half of the global rice export market, the officials said, adding that non-Basmati rice shipments are likely to clock $5.8 billion.

“We expect farm exports to reach the highest and record $50 billion this year,” said one of the officials.

In the April to November 2021 period, export of agricultural products, including marine and plantation, amounted to $31.05 billion, up from $25.2 billion in the year-ago period.

Export of marine products is likely to touch a record $8 billion, while that of coffee could grow 45% and cereals 66%. Overseas shipment of meat, dairy and poultry products could rise 10% this fiscal, the official said.

In the first eight months of the fiscal, India’s wheat exports rose by about 421%, sugar exports grew by 62% and that of other cereals increased by 79%.

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 10% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending Jan. 15 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 11% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 12% w/w

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Up 19.7% Week Ended Jan. 12: USDA