Global Ag News for Feb 17.23
IGC Cuts World Grain-Crop Outlook 8m Tons on Argentina, US Corn
World grain production in the 2022-23 season is now seen at 2.248b tons, down from a January outlook for 2.256b tons, the International Grains Council said in a report on Thursday.
- That’s due to smaller corn crops in Argentina and the US
- Still, grain stockpiles outlook was raised to 579m tons, up from 577m tons, as consumption wanes
- Wheat stockpile est. raised to 282m tons, from 281m tons
- Corn stockpile outlook increased to 255m tons, from 254m tons
- Soybean stockpiles cut to 49m tons, from 54m tons, on smaller output
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $0.58; Soyoil down 0.74.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 19 1/4 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 10 3/4; Soymeal down $0.16; Soyoil up 1.05.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 14 3/4 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal up $12.50; Soyoil down 1.08.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.5% in SRW, up 1.5% in HRW, down 0.6% in HRS; Corn is down 0.3%; Soybeans up 0.6%; Soymeal up 3.4%; Soyoil down 3.6%.
Chinese Ag futures (MAY 23) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil up 170; Palm oil up 208; Corn up 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 62 ringgit (+1.52%) at 4131.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,587 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 302 Soybeans; 467 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 192 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 16 were: SRW Wheat down 3,573 contracts, HRW Wheat down 210, Corn up 6,261, Soybeans down 512, Soymeal up 4,289, Soyoil up 3,670.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers continue for central and northern Brazil, where breaks in the heavy showers are few and far between. Soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting remain behind schedule. If the delays are too great this week and next week, as they are forecast to be, safrinha corn will be more exposed to the dry season in a couple of months, which may include pollination. Southern areas continue to have issues with pronounced dryness but will get some better rainfall this week. Rio Grande do Sul will quickly dry out, but areas farther north will continue to see showers through next week.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A front is lifting through Argentina on Thursday, producing widespread showers for northern areas of the country, but only light showers for the main growing areas. After Friday, it will be at least a week of dryness. Temperatures will become much more seasonable and cooler after the front goes by, but the lack of moisture continues to be a major concern for corn and soybeans.
Northern Plains Forecast: A brief shot of cold is moving through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on Thursday, but temperatures will pop back up for the weekend. A couple of clippers will move through over the weekend, next week bringing another shot of arctic air into the region, which should last a bit longer. The cold will increase stress and feed requirements for livestock.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A system continues to produce widespread showers in the Central Plains Thursday, with a stripe of moderate to heavy snow that developed from Colorado, Kansas, and southeast Nebraska. Precipitation this week will help to at least keep drought from getting worse, but much more will be needed. A shot of much colder air may move through much of the region next week, which could hit exposed winter wheat areas and open feedlots with a brief hit of arctic cold. There will likely be a couple of rounds of precipitation as the front slides south, but amounts are yet to be determined.
Midwest Forecast: Another system is bringing a band of moderate to heavy snow from Iowa to Michigan and showers to the south Thursday into Friday. A brief shot of colder air will follow but temperatures will rise again over the weekend and into next week. Several clippers will move through next week with scattered showers, pushing a cold front through the region and bringing a more significant cold shot, especially for the northwest.
The player sheet for Feb. 16 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 75,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 128,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2022/2023 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought 76,203 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
- SOYMEAL TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
- CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,439 tonnes of rice.
- RICE TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, GASC, is seeking at least 25,000 tonnes, plus or minus 10% at the buyer’s preference, of white rice in a tender-practice on the account of the Holding Company for Food Industries. Offers should be submitted on Feb. 14.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Feb. 22.
Argentina Drought, Heat Wave Will Mean More Soy Losses: Bourse
Plants in key central regions are suffering after heat waves and, with no rain forecast in the short term, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is sure to cut its production forecast of 38m metric tons, analysts said in a weekly report.
- Harvest of early corn hard-hit by the drought is progressing well in Santa Fe and Entre Rios
- Late corn has better water reserves but still needs more rain
Argentine Corn Planted Estimate Feb. 16: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2022-23 corn area held at 7.1m ha
- Corn planting 100% complete
Ukraine says talks on extending Black Sea grain corridor will start in a week
Negotiations on extending the Black Sea grain corridor will begin in a week, Ukrainian deputy infrastructure minister Yuriy Vaskov said on Friday.
“Negotiations on extending the grain corridor will begin in a week and then we will understand the positions of all parties,” Vaskov said during a grain conference. “I think common sense will prevail and the corridor will be extended.”
The Black Sea Grain Initiative brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July allowed grain to be exported from Ukrainian ports that had been blockaded by Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
FOR THE 2023-24 SEASON:
- World wheat production and stockpiles are forecast to tighten, the IGC said, without giving figures
- Corn acreage is expected to see a “slight uptick,” while barley plantings should fall
- Sowing in Ukraine is “tentatively seen sharply lower” and there’s uncertainty about agricultural activity in uncontrolled territories
Grain traders see lower Ukraine harvest in 2023
Ukraine’s grain and oilseed crop harvest is set to fall to 64.8 million tonnes in 2023 from 72.7 million tonnes in 2022, Ukrainian grain traders union UGA said on Friday.
The grain harvest could include 17.4 million tonnes of wheat and 21.1 million tonnes of corn, the traders said.
Exports of wheat could be 14 million tonnes and exports of corn could be 20 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing season, the union said.
- Lower rainfall will make it tougher to repeat record crop
- Climate models show El Nino poised to develop from June
Drier conditions in Western Australia could spur some farmers to cut the area planted to grain for the next crop after they just completed a record harvest, said the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia.
The weather outlook is shifting rapidly back to a more “normal” scenario of less rainfall for the coming growing season, the association said in a release. “For many growers in the lower rainfall regions, there will be a pulling back in area cropped.” Subsoil moisture is still good in central and southern areas.
Australia is the world’s second-biggest wheat exporting country and traders will closely watch weather trends in the next few months to see if the country can repeat the bumper harvest just gathered. Australian exports have helped cap global wheat prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine slashed supplies.
Rain is more likely to be below normal in Western Australia from April to June, the state government said separately, citing climate models. An El Nino in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event are likely to develop from June onward, it said. This may reduce rain over parts of Australia, but the “predictive skill for these events from late summer is historically low.”
Western Australia produced just over 26 million tons of grain in the 2022 season, 8% more than a year earlier, the association said. The tonnage grown in the state equates to about two years of average output 10 years ago. “That’s an incredible result and one that may not be repeated for a while.”
Bulk of French Wheat Emerging From Winter in Good Shape: AgriMer
Some 93% of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition as of Feb. 13, slightly less than this time last year, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.
- The report is the first of the year from the crops office, following a hiatus for winter dormancy
- Spring barley was 58% planted, versus 26% at this time last year
- NOTE: Much of France has recently faced a dry spell
- Rain is possible next week in southern France, while dryness continues elsewhere, forecaster Maxar said in a note
China rolls out GMO corn planting, starts small
China will likely plant less than 1% of its corn fields with genetically modified varieties this year, said two people familiar with the plans, dashing hopes for a full market launch of the technology in the world’s second-largest corn market.
The agriculture ministry has designated around 4 million mu (267,000 hectares or 660,000 acres) to be planted with genetically modified or GMO corn this year, said a senior manager at a Chinese seed developer briefed on the plans.
Several varieties will be planted in certain counties of Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Hebei and Yunnan provinces, he said, declining to be identified because the plan is not public.
China has studied GMO food crops for decades but has never permitted them to be planted because of opposition to the technology, although it allows imported GMO soybeans and corn for use in animal feed and the planting of GMO cotton.
CF Industries Sees US Corn Plantings Up as Much as 5% >From 2022
The world’s biggest nitrogen fertilizer company expects 91m-93m US corn acres planted this spring, as much as 5% more than last year, as elevated grain prices and easing farm costs motivate farmers to sow more crops.
- Agriculture economics in North America are expected to stay positive this year assuming a return to normal weather conditions, CF Industries Holdings said in an earnings presentation with analysts
- NOTE: US growers planted 88.6m acres of corn in 2022, down 5% from the prior year, as fertilizer prices soared to record highs
- NOTE: USDA next week will issue an informal estimate for US grain plantings at its agriculture outlook forum; the agency will release an official preliminary number at the end of March
- Seed company Corteva has said it expects 91m acres of corn this year; a recent Farm Futures survey showed 90.5m acres
Grain Shipments on Mississippi River Fell 5% Last Week: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 539k tons in the week ending Feb. 11 from 569k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn rose 109% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments down 32% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $15.46 per short ton, a decline of $3.08 from the previous week
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