Global Ag News for Dec 16.22

TOP HEADLINES

India raises base import price of palm oil, gold

India raised the base import prices of crude palm oil and soyoil, gold and silver, the government said in a statement late on Thursday, as prices jumped in the world market.

The government revises base import prices of edible oils, gold and silver every fortnight, and the prices are used to calculate the amount of tax an importer needs to pay.

India is the world’s biggest importer of edible oils and silver and the second-biggest consumer of gold.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil down 0.93.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 23 in SRW, up 25 1/2 in HRW, up 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans down 18 3/4; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 2.51.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 38 1/4 in SRW, down 41 1/4 in HRW, down 26 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 15 1/2; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal up $36.60; Soyoil down 8.23.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down -2% in SRW, up 7% in HRW, down -7% in HRS; Corn is up 10%; Soybeans up 10%; Soymeal up 10%; Soyoil up 12%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans down 40 yuan; Soymeal up 45; Soyoil down 134; Palm oil down 42; Corn up 19 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 12 ringgit (+0.31%) at 3890.

There were changes in registrations (-65 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,860 SRW Wheat contracts; 30 Oats; 308 Corn; 91 Soybeans; 774 Soyoil; 301 Soymeal; 495 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 15 were: SRW Wheat down 1,525 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,034, Corn down 92, Soybeans down 747, Soymeal up 5,506, Soyoil down 1,004.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast:  Some showers will fill back in over the weekend, but the state of Rio Grande do Sul will see much less precipitation. Drier conditions there are somewhat concerning and could start to create some stress as rainfall has been lower than normal over the last six weeks or so. Otherwise, generally favorable weather continues for most of the corn and soybean areas.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A front moved through Argentina on Wednesday, but precipitation was very spotty. Drought continues to have negative influences on corn and soybean development as well as planting. Dryness is favored with increasing temperatures next week. Overall, conditions continue to be poor for corn and soybeans until precipitation becomes more consistent.

Northern Plains Forecast: In the Northern Plains, widespread heavy snow is turning more into bursts of light to moderate snow for Thursday before phasing out into more light snow. That light snow will stick around through the weekend. Cold air is moving in behind the system, but an arctic blast coming with a cold front and the polar vortex this weekend will continue to keep the region cold through at least Christmas.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A strong storm system has mostly left the Central and Southern Plains, but some light snow will stick around Nebraska through Friday. Very little precipitation fell in southwestern areas, which continue to be under strong influence of drought. A stronger front will move into the region early next week with some precipitation but much colder air. An even stronger front will reinforce the cold later next week that will spread through the entire region.

Midwest Forecast: A strong storm system continues to bring heavy snow across the northern Midwest, but will wind down over the course of the next two days. Cold air will move in behind the system and will be reinforced by a couple of very strong cold fronts next week.

The player sheet for Dec. 15 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• U.S. spot basis bids for soy and corn shipped by barge to U.S. Gulf export terminals eased again on Thursday, even as recent weekly export volumes met or exceeded analyst expectations, traders said.
  • Export premiums for soybeans shipped in January ticked slightly down to about 170 cents over January futures, down 5 cents, traders said.
  • CIF soybean barges loaded in December were bid at 140 cents over January, down 2 cents.
  • For corn, CIF barges loaded in December were bid at 110 cents over March, down 4 cents.
  • The nearby FOB market for corn was relatively unchanged, with export premiums for January loadings rising by 1 cent to about 135 cents over March futures.
• Spot basis bids for corn were mixed-to-firmer on Thursday morning at processors across the U.S. Midwest, while soybean bids eased.
  • Corn bids firmed at processors in Decatur, Illinois and Blair, Nebraska,
  • Corn basis eased at a Cedar Rapids, Iowa processor.
  • Soybeans basis fell at processors in Decatur, Illinois and Lincoln, Nebraska, as well as a river terminal in Seneca, Illinois.
• Spot basis bids for soybeans fell on Thursday at elevators across the U.S. Midwest, while corn bids remained mostly steady, grain dealers said.
  • Soybean bids fell in Decatur, Illinois, as well as a river terminal in Morris, Illinois, and an elevator in Council Bluffs, Iowa.
  • The basis for corn firmed at a processor in Blair, Nebraska.
• Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were steady across the U.S. Southern Plains on Thursday, grain dealers said.
  • Premiums for hard red winter wheat delivered by rail to or through Kansas City were steady, according to CME Group data.
• Spot basis offers for soymeal firmed at the U.S. Gulf, , dealers said.

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 101,600 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• FOOD WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 154,942 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• DURUM WHEAT SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased around 125,0000 tonnes of durum wheat in an international tender which closed on Thursday.

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 8, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China bought 1.25m tons of the 2.94m tons of soybeans sold in the week
• Guatemala was the top buyer of corn and countries listed as ‘Unknown’ led in wheat

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 8, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 9.9k tons of the 22.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

US Soy Crush Misses Analyst Estimates in November

US soybean processing fell to 179.184 bu in November, according to National Oilseed Processors Association data released by Thomson Reuters, missing the average 181.6m bu forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Crushing last month was slightly below the year-ago period, and lower than the 184.5m bu reported for October

Soybean-oil inventories at the end of Nov. came in at 1.630b lbs, slightly above the average analyst estimate of 1.597b lbs and below the 1.832 seen a year ago

NOPA November soy crush falls to 179.184 million bushels, below estimates

The monthly U.S. soybean crush fell in November, missing the average of analyst estimates, while soyoil stocks rose to the highest in four months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 179.184 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from the 184.464 million bushels processed in October and slightly below the November 2021 crush of 179.462 million bushels.

NOPA’s crush figure of 179.184 million bushels was 2.289 million bushels below the average estimate of 181.473 million bushels from seven analysts in a Reuters survey. Analyst estimates ranged from 180.000 million to 183.115 million bushels, with a median of 181.265 million bushels.

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of November 30 climbed to 1.630 billion lbs, up from 1.528 billion lbs at the end of October but still below the 1.832 billion lbs a year ago.

Soyoil supplies at the end of November were expected to have climbed to 1.619 billion lbs, according to the average of estimates gathered from five analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.550 billion to 1.775 billion lbs, with a median of 1.600 billion lbs.

Drought hits Brazil corn in key southern state – StoneX

A drought is compromising corn fields in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state, which is now expected to produce 4.51 million tonnes of the cereal, according to a forecast by StoneX on Thursday.

The revised output figure is less than a previously forecast 5.38 million tonnes of corn production for the state in the 2022/2023 cycle.

Despite frequently ranking among the main producers of summer corn and soybeans, it is not uncommon for Rio Grande do Sul to suffer from climatic adversities, StoneX said.

The 2021/2022 season, for example, was marked by considerably drier-than-normal weather at a time of great importance for the development of crops.

In that season, StoneX had estimated summer corn output at 5.76 million tonnes in Brazil’s southernmost state. However, at the end of that cycle, dryness caused production to fall to an estimated 2.56 million tonnes.

StoneX said it is early to predict whether the current dry weather will also affect the state’s soybean crop, noting this will become clearer in January and February as fields develop.

For now, Rio Grande do Sul’s soybean crop is estimated at above 22 million tonnes in the present cycle, representing a hefty rise from the roughly 11 million tonnes of the prior season, when lack of rains spoiled almost half of the crop, StoneX data show.

Rio Grande do Sul is among Brazil’s biggest corn and soybean producers.

Brazilian farmers plant up to three corn crops in some regions, with first and second corn, also referred to as summer and winter corn, representing the bulk of production.

This month, Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency Conab cut its forecast for Brazil’s first corn to 27.2 million tonnes, citing the drought in Rio Grande do Sul. It kept second corn output projection at 96.27 million tonnes.

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Dec. 15: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2022-23 soybean and corn area estimates both are unchanged from the previous week
• 2022-23 wheat harvest advanced to 54% complete from 42%
• The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

Argentine soybean planting still challenged by drought -grains exchange

Rainfall over recent days has not been enough for successful planting of soybeans after an extended drought in Argentina’s core agricultural areas, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of processed soy, but its usually green Pampas plains are being hit by a historic drought that is preventing many farmers from planting their fields.

“Despite some rains recorded last Friday over the center of the agricultural area, water supplies continue to be inconsistent and insufficient,” it said in its weekly report.

Farmers had as of Wednesday planted 50.8% of the 16.7 million hectares planned for 22/23 soybeans, according to a report from the exchange, marking a 14.2 percentage point delay from last year.

The grains exchange added that in the country’s core agricultural zone, planting was between 20 and 22.3 percentage points behind last year’s cycle. The longer planting is delayed, the smaller the harvest is likely to be.

Regarding the 2022/23 cycle for corn, the exchange said sowing was 42.6% complete – 5.1 percentage points behind the previous campaign. The planting area for the cereal is estimated to reach 7.3 million hectares.

The exchange said the condition of the fields varied extensively, even after the December rains. Argentina is the third largest exporter of corn in the world.

Argentina is also a key world supplier of wheat, but the 2022/23 campaign has also suffered from lack of rain as well as late-season frosts.

The exchange said 53.8% of the 12.4 million tonnes planted has been harvested, 10 million tonnes less than in the previous harvest.

The Rosario Stock Exchange had on Wednesday again cut its forecast for Argentine wheat production to 11.5 million tonnes, due to the impacts of the drought.

Indian farmers increase wheat plantings by 3% from a year earlier

Indian farmers have planted wheat on 28.65 million hectares (70.8 million acres) since Oct. 1, when the current sowing season began, up nearly 3% from a year ago, the latest data from the farm ministry showed on Friday.

Farmers have also increased the area cultivating rapeseed, a key winter-sown oilseed, to 9 million hectares as of Dec. 16, up from last year’s 8.3 million hectares, the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare said in a statement.

EU 2023 Grains Output to Rebound 7% If Weather Better: Strategie

Grains production in the EU-27 countries is seen at 282.1m tons in the 2023-24 season, up from 263.9m tons in the current year, analyst Strategie Grains said in an initial estimate.

• Outlook is based on better weather than 2022, when drought proved “catastrophic” for corn production
• European winter-grain crops are largely in good condition
• Still, outlook errs “on the side of caution” due to high fertilizer and production costs
• Soft-wheat crop seen at 128.7m tons, versus 125.5m tons
  • Barley harvest forecast at 52.5m tons, versus 51.3m tons
  • Corn output projected at 63.7m tons, versus 50.5m tons
• Slight increase in demand won’t offset the production gains, leaving the EU saddled with “heavy” wheat supplies
  • Local grain prices likely to fall for the remainder of the current season and into the next

WORLD OUTLOOK:

• Global grains demand currently “remains rather moribund” amid waning meat and dairy production
• Soft-wheat crop seen rising 1% y/y to 731.8m tons in 2023-24
  • Total wheat crop up 1.4% to 768.2m tons
• Barley crop seen falling 2.4% to 146.8m tons
• Corn crop seen rising 4.8% to 1.17b tons

Indonesia Sets Higher Biodiesel Allocation for 2023

The world’s biggest palm oil producer will use 13.15m kiloliters of palm-based biodiesel for blending with gasoil, a 19% increase from this year, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry in a statement on Friday.

• Indonesia requires biodiesel to contain 35% palm oil from next year, a policy known as the B35, up from the current 30% mix
• As many as 21 biodiesel producers, including Wilmar Nabati Indonesia, SMART, Permata Hijau Palm Oleo and Tunas Baru Lampung will supply the fuel to retailers

Grain Shipments on Mississippi River Fell 5% Last Week: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 769k tons in the week ending Dec. 10 from 808k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 10% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 5% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $33.98 per short ton, an increase of $1.84 from the previous week
• The following figures are in thousands of tons:

Brazil On Alert for Bird Flu Amid South American Outbreak: ABPA

The world’s largest chicken exporter remains bird flu free, but is “on alert” as five South American nations have reported outbreaks since October, Ricardo Santin, head of the exporter group ABPA, told reporters Thursday.

• “Brazil has never had a bird flu episode and is prepared to deal with it if any case occurs to prevent it from reaching industrial herds”
• Bird flu outbreaks were recently reported in coastal areas of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile and Venezuela: ABPA
• Brazil exports may rise next year as key exporters face issues with bird flu, including the US and European nations
• China demand seen rising next year amid easing Covid policies
• Brazilian shipments also seen favored by higher energy costs, labor issues in the northern hemisphere
  • Feed costs in Brazil seen favored by record corn production, though corn prices won’t fall enough to allow a reduction in meat prices to consumers

China Calls for Early Preparations to Protect Crops From La Nina

• Extreme weather like drought and floods may happen frequently
• Irrigation must be checked before potential drought in spring

China urged local authorities to make early preparations to deal with the impact of the La Nina weather event, to help secure a bumper grain harvest next year and ensure steady supplies of vegetables.

Climate uncertainties this winter and next spring are rising, while extreme weather including drought and floods may happen frequently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement late Thursday. The task of disaster prevention and mitigation in agriculture is very severe, it said.

China has made food security a top government priority, with officials calling every year for all-out efforts to produce bumper crops and avoid wastage. The country targets self-sufficiency in grains, but has become one of the world’s largest importers of corn and wheat. It’s also the biggest buyer of soybeans.

Winter wheat-growing regions in northern China must be prepared to prevent low temperatures and cold snaps from hurting the crops and ensure irrigation of fields that are suffering from inadequate moisture, the ministry said.

Irrigation facilities must be inspected ahead of time, so that when drought hits in the spring, the limited water resources can be used effectively to protect the young crops, it said. Vegetables grown in facilities and outdoors are also vulnerable to cold snaps and must be protected as well.

Spring flooding and drought could hit parts of the northeastern region, the country’s main growing area, the ministry said. Authorities in the south must do everything they can to develop water resources and build water reserves in the fields, to protect against continuous drought, it said.

India Govt Has Enough Food Grains for Welfare Programs: Ministry

The Indian government has accumulated sufficient reserves of food grains for its various welfare programs, according to the food ministry.

• About 15.9m tons of wheat will be available on Jan. 1, compared with government’s buffer target of 13.8m tons, it said in a statement Wednesday
• The govt is constantly monitoring prices of wheat and other commodities and taking corrective measures, as and when required
• Production and procurement of wheat are expected to be normal next season due to an increase in support prices — the rate at which the govt buys grains from farmers — and good weather conditions
• The government’s wheat purchases will begin from April; as per the initial assessment, there has been a “fair increase in the sowing of wheat” from last year
• India will take necessary steps to help farmers so that production of pulses could be increased, the ministry said in a separate statement
• Importers will also be supported for “seamless” imports of pulses to ensure availability at affordable prices in 2023