Global Ag News For Dec 14.22

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA November U.S. soy crush seen at 181.473 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely surged in November to the ninth highest on record for any month, supported by strong supplies of newly harvested soybeans, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Thursday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 181.473 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average of estimates from seven analysts.

If realized, the monthly crush would be down 1.62% from the 184.464 million bushels processed by NOPA members in October, but up 1.12% from the November 2021 crush of 179.462 million bushels. It would also be the largest November crush on record.

The November estimate implied a daily processing rate of 6.049 million bushels, which would be the highest daily crush on record.

Estimates for the November 2022 crush ranged from 180.000 million to 183.115 million bushels, with a median of 181.265 million bushels.

The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Thursday. NOPA releases crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day.

Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of Nov. 30 were projected at 1.619 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from five analysts.

If realized, the soyoil stocks would be up 6% from the 1.528 billion pounds at the end of October but down 11.61% from the 1.832 billion pounds held by NOPA members at the end of November last year.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.550 billion to 1.775 billion pounds, with a median of 1.600 billion pounds.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 10 1/4 in HRW, down 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 9; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.53.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 10 in SRW, up 23 in HRW, up 12 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans down 14 3/4; Soymeal down $1.93; Soyoil up 3.32.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 51 in SRW, down 44 3/4 in HRW, down 29 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 17 3/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $34.90; Soyoil down 7.44.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down -5% in SRW, up 10% in HRW, down -4% in HRS; Corn is up 8%; Soybeans up 11%; Soymeal up 9%; Soyoil up 18%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal down 35; Soyoil up 118; Palm oil up 122; Corn down 15 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 64 ringgit (+1.65%) at 3950.

There were changes in registrations (-1 Oats). Registration total: 2,968 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 308 Corn; 91 Soybeans; 749 Soyoil; 301 Soymeal; 495 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 13 were: SRW Wheat up 846 contracts, HRW Wheat down 686, Corn down 6,315, Soybeans up 3,267, Soymeal up 4,497, Soyoil down 9,159.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers will continue in central and northern Brazil for the next week as is typical for this time of year. A front moved through southern areas on Monday but is getting drier behind it for the rest of the week. Some showers will fill back in over the weekend, but the state of Rio Grande do Sul will see much less precipitation. Drier conditions there are somewhat concerning and could start to create some stress as rainfall has been lower than normal over the last six weeks or so. Otherwise, generally favorable weather continues for most of the corn and soybean areas.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A front moved through Argentina over the weekend, wiping out the extreme heatwave that was in the region all last week. Rainfall was not very heavy, and drought continues to have negative influences on corn and soybean development as well as planting. While this week will not be as hot, the region will be mostly dry. Overall, conditions continue to be poor for corn and soybeans until precipitation becomes more consistent.

Northern Plains Forecast: Widespread heavy precipitation is building in the Northern Plains and will stick around through Thursday before finally diminishing to light snow. Heavy snow is expected across most of the area. With winds also becoming strong, blizzard conditions and blowing snow are likely as well. Cold air is going to move in behind the system, sticking around through at least Christmas.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A strong storm system is moving through the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday. Strong winds and a line of storms is moving through Tuesday. Severe weather will be possible. Heavy snow in the northwest will continue through Wednesday morning before becoming lighter, but snow will stick around Nebraska through Friday. Very little precipitation fell in southwestern areas, which continue to be under strong influence of drought. A stronger front will move through early next week with some precipitation but much colder air.

Midwest Forecast: A strong storm system will move through the Midwest this week with widespread precipitation in several bands, including snow across the north. Cold air will move in behind the system and will be reinforced by a couple of strong cold fronts next week.

The player sheet for Dec. 13 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 140,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• FEED WHEAT SALE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought around 119,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in an international tender which closed late last week
• ADDITIONAL RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice.

• FAILED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday.

• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 154,942 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Dec. 15.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT AND SOYMEAL TENDER: A group of importers in the Philippines issued an international tender to purchase up to 110,000 tonnes of feed wheat and up to 135,000 tonnes of soymeal to be sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued new international tenders to purchase around 25,000 tonnes of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat for February shipment.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is Dec. 21.

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Dec. 9 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.063m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.289m bbl vs 23.257m a week ago
• Would be the highest level since August
• The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 10:30am Wednesday

Ukraine Says 66% of Corn Area Harvested as of Dec. 13

Ukrainian farmer have harvested 17.2 m tons of corn, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Sunflower harvest at 98% of sowing area, with 10 m tons of seeds threshed and with a yield of 21.8 tons per hectare
• Sugar beet harvest at 98%, representing 8.9 million tons
• Harvest of rapeseed, wheat and barley completed
• NOTE: Dec.1 Ukraine said 60% of corn area harvested

Argentina Soy Trades Reach 3m Tons After FX Measure: Bourse

Farmers have traded 2.98m metric tons of soybeans since the government temporarily devalued the peso for them for a second time from Nov. 28, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report.

• The Rosario data is through Dec. 12
• New soy sales account for 1.9m tons
• Farmers have completed transactions on delayed-price contracts for another 1m tons
• The trades are worth $1.4b
• NOTE: The government hopes to lure at least $3b from the measure, which runs until the end of the year
• The first temporary devaluation in September spurred 16.1m tons of sales worth $8.1b

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Up 6% YoY; Corn Imports More Than Double

EU soft-wheat exports during the season that began July 1 reached 15.4m tons as of Dec. 12, compared with 14.5m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (2.11m tons) Algeria (2.06m tons), and Egypt (1.59m tons)
• EU barley exports were at 2.76m tons, compared with 4.74m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 13.1m tons, against 6.02m tons a year earlier

EU 2022/23 soybean imports by Dec. 11 at 4.86 mln T, rapeseed 3.15 mln T

European Union soybean imports in the 2022/23 season that started on July 1 had reached 4.86 million tonnes by Dec. 11, against 5.81 million by the same week in the previous season, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports so far in 2022/23 had reached 3.15 million tonnes, compared with 2.30 million tonnes a year earlier.

Soymeal imports over the same period totalled 7.11 million tonnes against 7.13 million tonnes the prior season, while palm oil imports stood at 1.52 million tonnes versus 2.53 million tonnes in 2021/22.

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 1.77 mln tns in December – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.77 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 1.7 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.6 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 1.54 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.7 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 5.43 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 696,586 TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 658,733 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Indonesia’s crude palm oil 2023 output seen at 48.1 mln T -industry group

Indonesia’s crude palm oil output is seen at 46.5 million tonnes this year and expected to rise to 48.1 million tonnes, according to a forecast by industry group Indonesia Palm Oil Board presented by acting chairman Sahat Sinaga on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 2022 palm oil exports is estimated at 30.9 million tonnes and at 33.4 million tonnes next year, the data showed.

Indonesia’s CPO Output Seen Rising to 48.1M Tons in 2023: Sinaga

Indonesia’s crude palm oil production may rise to 48.1m tons in 2023 from about 46.5m tons this year, according to Sahat Sinaga, acting chairman of Indonesia Palm Oil Board on Wednesday.

• Exports of palm oil seen increasing to 33.4m tons in 2023 vs 30.9m tons this year
• Tropical countries that produce palm oil seen producing more CPO as covid restrictions loosen
• Slower output growth seen in Malaysia due to lack of labor

India Nov. Vegetable Oil Imports Rise to 1.55m Tons: SEA

India’s vegetable oil imports rose to 1.55m tons in November from 1.4m tons in October, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Palm oil imports rose to 1.14m tons from 886,594 tons in October
• Soybean oil imports fell to 229,373 tons from 334,467 tons in October
• Sunflower oil imports rose to 157,709 tons from 144,934 tons in October

India’s poultry industry seeks corn export curb to calm local prices

India needs to restrict corn exports to curb a rise in domestic prices and to ensure sufficient supplies of the main poultry feed, the country’s livestock industry said on Tuesday.

Domestic corn prices have surged, driven by high demand, increased exports and some damage to the crop following heavy post-monsoon rains.

“We are staring at massive shortages of corn. That is why we have requested the government to ban corn exports,” Neeraj Kumar Srivastava, chairman of the Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers’ Association of India told Reuters in an interview.

Corn prices at the Gulab Bagh market in the eastern state of Bihar, a major corn hub, have risen by around 12% to 25,000 rupees ($302.02) a tonne over the last year, pushing up the cost of production for India’s poultry industry.

“Corn prices have been going up for the past few years, but the recent spike has come as a big blow to the industry, and that is why we are going through a rough patch,” Srivastava said.

“We cannot any longer pass on the cost to consumers as higher egg and chicken prices will make these poultry products unaffordable for many common consumers,” he said.

India exported 3.6 million tonnes of corn in 2021, up from 1.9 million tonnes sold on the world market in 2020, according to trade and industry estimates.

Between January and September this year, India shipped out 2.4 million tonnes of corn.

In the world market, Indian corn is priced at $315 a tonne to $320 a tonne against $350 a tonne for rival supplies from Argentina, the world’s biggest corn exporter after the United States.

India supplies corn to countries including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam.

“Exports have primarily picked up due to India’s competitive pricing, but higher prices of other grains like broken rice have made it difficult for the poultry industry to replace corn with any other livestock feed,” said Amit Sachdev, the India representative of the U.S. Grains Council.

India’s December wheat stocks fall to 6-year low, lifts prices

Indian wheat stocks held in government warehouses for December fell to the lowest in six years, government data showed on Tuesday, as prices jumped to a record high on rising demand and falling inventories.

Lower state reserves could hobble the government’s efforts to release stocks to cool wheat prices, something it does regularly for bulk buyers such as flour and biscuit makers.

Wheat reserves in state stores totalled 19 million tonnes at the start of this month, down from 37.85 million tonnes on Dec. 1, 2021.

The current stocks for December are at the lowest since 2016, when inventories had fallen to 16.5 million tonnes because of back-to-back droughts in 2014 and 2015 that curtailed wheat output.

“The new crop supplies would start only after four months. The government’s task of calm prices is becoming more difficult every month,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

“It can’t release more than 2 million tonnes in a month to bring down prices. The market needs much more as farmers supplies have nearly stopped and traders are slowly releasing stocks,” he said.

The government stockpile depleted by around 2 million tonnes in November, according to data compiled by the Food Corporation of India.

Wheat prices have surged in India despite the world’s second-biggest producer of the grain implementing a ban on exports in May as it was stung by a sudden drop in crop yields.

Local wheat prices have jumped nearly 28% since the May ban on exports and ruling at 26,785 rupees a tonne on Tuesday.

Wheat production in the new season would rise to normal levels but prices would remain elevated until the new season supplies gain momentum from April, said a New Delhi-based trader.

Indian farmers have planted wheat on 25.6 million hectares since Oct. 1, when the current sowing season began, up 25.4% from a year ago.

French Wheat Exports, Corn Stocks Seen Higher: AgriMer

French soft-wheat exports outside the EU are now seen at 10.3m tons in the 2022-23 season, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.

• That’s up from a November outlook for 10m tons
• Total exports seen at 17.2m tons, up from 17.1m tons
• Stockpiles estimate cut to 2.55m tons, from 2.56m tons

BARLEY

• Non-EU exports seen at 2.5m tons, versus 2.4m tons
• Total exports seen at 5.57m tons, versus 5.49m tons
• Stockpiles estimate raised to 1.85m tons, from 1.81m tons

CORN

• Stockpiles for 2022-23 season as seen at 2.23m tons, versus 2.04m tons

New Zealand Farm Confidence Falls to Record Low, Rabobank Says

Rabobank releases 4q survey of farmer confidence, in emailed statement.

• Shows 4% of farmers expect agricultural economic conditions to improve in the coming 12 months, down from 12% in 3q
• Shows 75% expect conditions to deteriorate, up from 43%
• Net 71% are pessimistic up from net 31% in 3q
• Lowest level in 20-year history of survey: Rabobank
• Rising farm input costs and government policy were the two major reasons cited by farmers
  • Rise in concern over government policy “was likely to be tied to the government’s proposed framework for pricing agricultural emissions released in October”: New Zealand CEO Todd Charteris
  • Announcement of plans to revisit sequestration policy came after survey closed
• Expectations by farmers for their own business performance also fell to record low with a net 53% expecting a deterioration, up from 26%
• Investment intentions were lower with a net 14% likely to reduce spending
• Survey of ~450 farmers was completed in November

Commodity merchant Louis Dreyfus creates food solutions unit

Agricultural commodity merchant Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) has created a food and feed solutions business line as part of efforts to diversify its activities in step with consumer trends, the company said on Tuesday.

The new unit will focus on developing LDC’s presence in the lecithin, glycerin and specialty feed protein areas, it said in a statement, adding it was well placed to scale up in the nature-based ingredients market, including via targeted acquisitions.

Deforestation of Brazilian savanna surged some 25% in a year, sources say

Deforestation in the world’s most biologically diverse savanna, the Brazilian Cerrado, rose by around 25% in the 12 months through July from the previous period, two people familiar with the still unreleased government data told Reuters.

Brazil has yet to publish its official annual figures for Cerrado deforestation, based on satellite analysis by the government’s space research agency Inpe. The sources requested anonymity as the data is not yet public.

Inpe declined to comment. A third source not authorized to speak to the media said the data would be released on Wednesday.

Such an increase would mean more than 10,000 square kilometers (3,861 square miles) of forest and other native savanna vegetation were destroyed in the 12 months, the most since 2015.

“More than 10,000 square km is a scary number,” said Mercedes Bustamante, an ecologist at University of Brasilia.

She said that the data might lead the European Union to reconsider its recently agreed law prohibiting companies from buying products linked to deforestation, which does not apply to most of the Cerrado.

Bustamante said the policies of outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro to weaken environmental protections had contributed to more destruction in the Cerrado, as in the Amazon rainforest. The Cerrado neighbors the Amazon, occupying more than 2 million square kilometers in central Brazil – larger than Mexico.

Bolsonaro’s office did not immediately respond to request for comment.

President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who takes office on Jan. 1, has pledged to end deforestation in the country by 2030, with plans to reverse Bolsonaro’s policies and strengthen environmental law enforcement.

Scientists liken the Cerrado to an upside-down forest because its plants sink deep roots into the ground to survive intense dry seasons. Destroying this biome rich in plant and animal species sends large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, driving climate change.

With the advance of Brazil’s agricultural frontier since the 1970s, much of the Cerrado has been cut down to raise cattle and grow soybeans and corn, destroying roughly half of the savanna’s native vegetation.

“The Cerrado has a unique richness of species and … has been devastated at a frightening pace in recent decades,” said Mariana Napolitano, science manager at advocacy group WWF-Brasil.