Global Ag News for Aug 4.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal up $0.12; Soyoil down 0.68.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 47 1/2 in SRW, down 42 in HRW, down 24 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 28; Soybeans down 104 3/4; Soymeal down $1.92; Soyoil down 5.34.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down -1% in SRW, up 4% in HRW, down -10% in HRS; Corn is down -1%; Soybeans up 17%; Soymeal up 17%; Soyoil up 19%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 66 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil down 152; Palm oil down 152; Corn down 11 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 45 ringgit (-1.16%) at 3819.

There were changes in registrations (35 Soymeal, ). Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 164 Soyoil; 35 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 3 were: SRW Wheat down 346 contracts, HRW Wheat up 722, Corn up 6,494, Soybeans up 3,643, Soymeal up 4,476, Soyoil up 2,456.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers north Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. Outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

The player sheet for Aug. 3 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, unchanged in corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN CAKE, MEAL SALE: U.S. exporters sold 135,000 tonnes of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Poland during the 2022/2023 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC purchased more than 700,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender
• WHEAT, FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency purchased about 125,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in an international tender, European traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought around 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and 50,000 tonnes to be sourced from Australia
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 55,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South Africa in an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 6,000 tonnes of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 92,100 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States, China and other origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy 122,103 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on Aug. 4.
• WHEAT, FEED BARLEY TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines issued tenders to purchase about 150,000 tonnes of millling/animal feed wheat and about 150,000 tonnes of feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 50,910 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

• Corn est. range 200k – 700k tons, with avg of 475k
• Soybean est. range 100k – 800k tons, with avg of 550k

Brazil Soybean Exports to China Fell 10% Y/y in July

According to data on the Brazilian Trade Ministry’s website.

• July exports to China fell to 5.17m tons from 5.77m tons a year ago
• Exports to non-China countries fell 19% y/y to 2.35m tons

SovEcon Lowers Ukraine 2022 Wheat Crop Estimate to 19.9m Tons

SovEcon lowered its Ukrainian 2021-2022 wheat crop estimate by 0.8m tons to 19.9m tons because of the smaller harvested area after Russia’s invasion.

• Ukraine is “expected to produce a good crop for current extremely challenging conditions”: Head of SovEcon Andrey Sizov
  • There is “a big question mark over the 2023 crop” as “supply is expected to exceed domestic consumption three times. This will hit the farmers’ bottom line hard if Ukraine can’t resume normal export flows shortly”
• Increases corn crop estimate by 1.5m tons to 29.6m tons, citing “higher yield due to improved weather conditions”
• Average yield forecast has been upped to 6.5 m tons/ha. from 6.1m tons/ha
• Total Ukrainian grain crop forecasted at 56.5m tons

European feeds-Soymeal mixed on contrasting signals – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Soymeal on the European meals and feeds market was mixed to firmer on Wednesday as concerns over a smaller U.S. soybean crop due to hot, dry weather outweighed geopolitical tensions with China. Headlines

South American soymeal was mostly offered between $9 lower and $6 a tonne higher on the mixed signals.  Hot, dry weather in the U.S. Midwest could hurt soybean yields provided additional support. Brazil’s record 2022/23 soybean production forecast at 152.6 million tonnes, 20 percent up from the previous season, limited gains.

EU rapemeal was quoted between seven and 11 euros per tonne higher tracking gains in soymeal and and due to increased demand from traders

Drought-Hit Grain Harvest Won’t Prompt Romania to Ban Exports

Romania has enough wheat to avoid restricting exports this year, even as severe drought and a lack of irrigation systems hits crops, the prime minister said.

The country won’t consider banning grain exports, as it did briefly at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, despite the lower production and increased protectionism over food security elsewhere, Premier Nicolae Ciuca said in an interview on Tuesday. Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine has increased the need for nations to help each other, he added.

“We will have enough wheat for exports this year, despite a decline in production, but we’re still gathering data on the other crops and we’re trying to see how we can help the farmers,” Ciuca, 55, said in Bucharest, while declining to give an estimate on the harvest. “I don’t think we’ll need to instate a ban, because when you ask for solidarity, you also have to show solidarity.”

Malaysia to Help India Amid ‘Erratic’ Indonesia Palm Oil Supply

Malaysia pledges to fulfill India’s palm oil demand in view of “potentially erratic” supply from Indonesia, Malaysia’s Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Zuraida Kamaruddin said in a statement Thursday.

• India’s palm oil imports from Malaysia will likely remain stable in 2H, accounting for 55% of total, despite Indonesia’s latest efforts to accelerate exports, Zuraida said, citing estimates from the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association
• The industry group forecasts a surge in demand to about 800,000 tons a month for the next six months, or an improvement of 20% from 1H: statement

Jokowi Seeks More Sorghum Output to Counter Global Wheat Bans

Indonesia seeks to increase output of wheat subsitutes, including sorghum, sago and cassava, amid wheat export bans in other countries, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto says in a press briefing Thursday.

• President Joko Widodo ordered cabinet to draft roadmap to increase sorghum output by increasing planted areas
  • Target is to add 15,000 hectares in 2022, 115,000ha in 2023 and 154,000ha in 2024
• Govt is optimistic economic growth to exceed 5% in 2Q, considering high consumer confidence and factory output
• Volatile food prices seen easing going forward, reducing inflationary pressure

Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpiles Seen Climbing to Eight-Month High

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia probably climbed to an eight-month high as soaring supplies from rival Indonesia kept its exports in check.

Stockpiles expanded 7.2% in July from the previous month to 1.77 million tons, according to the median of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders and plantation executives. That would be the highest since November and 18% higher than year-ago levels.

Rising inventories could weigh on palm oil prices, which have already slumped about 45% in the past three months on Indonesia’s move to ramp up exports. Veteran analyst Dorab Mistry has predicted that Malaysia’s stockpiles could rise to more than 2 million tons by end-August and hit 3 million tons by December or January as exports face stiff competition from Indonesian supplies.

Malaysia’s exports inched up 2% in July from the previous month to 1.22 million tons, according to the survey. Production could have dropped 2% to 1.51 million tons, with forecasts ranging widely from 1.44 million to 1.60 million.

“Labor shortage, high-base disadvantage from June and a cyclical effect are likely to keep July production performance marginal,” said Sathia Varqa, owner of Palm Oil Analytics in Singapore. Output in June was at a seven-month high.

More details from the survey:

• Stockpile estimates range from 1.71 million tons to 1.89 million tons
• Export forecasts are from 1.15 million tons to 1.27 million tons
• Imports might rise to around 92,500 tons from 59,195 tons in June
• Local consumption estimates range from 246,951 tons to 300,000 tons

China Stresses Importance of Food Security Amid Inflation Risk

• There’s a need to focus on autumn harvest, says Economic Daily
• Moderate imports effective, but country should broaden sources

Chinese authorities are reiterating calls to boost food security amid rampant global inflation, emphasizing that a bumper autumn harvest will determine whether the country can secure enough supplies for the year.

The summer crop has set a strong foundation for stabilizing grain output and prices, but there’s a greater need to focus on autumn production as it accounts for about 75% of annual grain output, the state-run Economic Daily reported.

Food security has always been an important issue for policy makers in Asia’s largest economy. It’s attracted more focus than usual this year after many agricultural commodities surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While prices have fallen over the last month or so, they’re still well above where they were a year ago.

Besides boosting domestic production, China considers “moderate imports” as an effective way to ensure food security, the Economic Daily said. But import sources are too concentrated currently, with soybeans coming mainly from Brazil, Argentina and the US, and corn from the US and Ukraine, it said.

This year, Beijing started allowing corn cargoes from Myanmar and wheat from all over Russia. It also lifted a ban on canola imports from Canada and inked a deal to allow supplies of corn, soybean meal and other products from Brazil.

Scorching temperatures across southern China are a threat to rice, fruit and vegetable production. Local authorities should work to reduce the impact of droughts, floods and diseases on crops, the newspaper reported.

India has no shortage of foodgrain, assures Agricultural Minister Narendra Singh Tomar

Foodgrain supplies in the nation are adequate to satisfy demand, according to Agricultural Minister Narendra Singh Tomar’s written response to Parliament on August 2. In reference to Centrally-owned food inventories held by the Food Corporation of India and quantities held by states on the Centre’s behalf, the minister said there were sufficient stocks in the “central pool.”

“As on 01.07.2022, the actual stock of wheat is 285.10 lakh metric tonnes (28.5 million tonne) against the buffer norm of 275.80 lakh metric tonnes (27.5 million tonne),” the minister told the Lok Sabha.

The agriculture minister responded separately that the Centre was unable to purchase as much wheat this year due to private dealers’ increased prices.

“The procurement of wheat has fallen due to higher purchase of wheat by traders as the market price of wheat has shot up due to the prevailing international geopolitical situation. Moreover, if the farmer gets a better price in comparison to MSP, they are free to sell their produce in the open market,” Tomar said.

Additionally, Tomar stated that the production of foodgrains climbed from 285.01 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 314.51 million tonnes in 2021–22, which was “an all-time record.”

To prevent a shortage of wheat for domestic use, India’s government limited wheat exports in an order dated May 13. Only private traders who had already established irrevocable letters of credit commitments and exports to nations that needed wheat for food security reasons, per their governments’ requests, were given an exception in the announcement. Shipments were curbed after record heat slashed production and drove up domestic prices.

Later on, India allowed “some relaxation” of its order restricting wheat exports to allow traders to meet prior commitments, according to the trade ministry.

Wheat consignments that have been handed over to customs for examination, and registered in their systems on or before May 13, will be cleared for export, the ministry said in a statement. The government has also given the green light for a 61,500-ton shipment to sail from Kandla port to Egypt following a request from that government, it said.

The decision to prohibit wheat exports brought attention to domestic inflation concerns and added to a global trend of food protectionism that has been stoked by skyrocketing crop prices. Exports of palm oil have been prohibited by Indonesia, and grain shipments are subject to limits in Serbia and Kazakhstan.

India’s ability to grow rice is also in jeopardy at a time when countries are battling with increasing food prices and severe inflation. The total area planted with rice has reduced by 13% so far this season as a result of a lack of rainfall in several regions, particularly West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, which produce 25% of India’s output.

Ethanol Gains Lift Andersons Shares to Highest in Almost 2 Years

• US grain handler sees biggest stock jump since September 2020
• Ohio company’s biofuels unit posts record quarterly cash flow

Shares of The Andersons Inc., one of the five largest US grain handlers, soared after reporting record big second-quarter ethanol profits despite high fuel pump prices that have dented national gasoline demand.

Ohio-based Andersons’ robust ethanol margins helped the company exceed second-quarter earnings forecasts. Shares climbed as much as 16% on Wednesday, the biggest jump since September 2020.

Ethanol makers are benefiting from more favorable fuel-blending policies out of Washington and higher spot ethanol prices, which climbed 10% in the three months ended in June, helped by an increase in US exports of the biofuel. A 15% drop in corn futures during the second quarter also likely helped boost margins, even amid a jump in some regional prices for the grain.

Looking ahead, elevated local costs for corn needed to make ethanol may “negatively impact” biofuel production in the western US, yet plants in the eastern Corn Belt are “well-positioned for corn supply,” according to the company’s earnings statement.

Shares rose 9.2% to $40.13 as of 10:13 a.m. in Nasdaq composite trading

Positive Agricultural Environment to Continue Through 2023: FMC

Commodity prices should be encouraging for farmers through 2023, FMC Corp. CEO Mark Douglas says in quarterly call Wednesday. Agriculture chemical company expects highest cost inflation of the year in the third quarter, executives say on call. Company is seeing inflation from raw material cost increases, shipping

Potash Prices Slip Amid Producers’ MOP Fill; China Supply Drops

Potash prices fell below Nutrien and Mosaic’s 3Q US fill offers last week, with Nutrien’s order book expected to close Aug. 3. Global inventory appears to be rising, except in China. Its port inventory of 1.6 million metric tons is near the strategic-reserve level, which we believe could signal 3Q buying. More European ammonia capacity has gone offline due to gas prices.