Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 2 cents and near 13.37. SMZ is near 392.3. BOZ is near 61.67. CZ is unch and near 4.76. WZ is down 7 cents and near 5.96. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 7.37. MWZ is down 5 cents and near 7.84. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.US Central Bank meeting this week.
Soybean futures are lower. Bears feel US harvest and prospects for record 2024 South America crop will limit the upside. Bulls feel a US yield closer to 49 will tighten US supply. Trade feels higher biofuel demand could push soyoil futures higher. Traded will be watching todays weekly US exports and crop conditions. Some look for US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 218 vs USDA 220. This includes increase in crush demand of 100 mil bu but drop in exports of 200 mil bu.
Corn futures remain near key support. Rumors that China bought Ukraine corn appears false. Trade watching US corn harvest yields and farmer selling pattern. US harvest could be early and fast. US domestic basis is wide and could limit farmer selling. Some still look for a post harvest rally on tightening pipeline supplies. US cattle margins are favorable due to tight feedlot inventories and fact packers are uncovered. US ethanol margins remain positive. Some look for US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,235 vs USDA 2,221, This includes increase in demand of 685 mil bu?
Wheat futures are lower. Appears Russia will continue to average record monthly wheat exports. South Hemisphere crop conditions continue to decline due to dry weather. World end users remain uncovered for 2024. Some look for US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 718 vs USDA 615 This includes increase drop in demand of 89 mil bu?
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