Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 2 cents and near 14.57. SMZ is near 425.9. BOZ is near 64.82. CZ is up 1 cent and near 6.83. Overnight low was 6.77. WZ is down 6 cents and near 8.66. Overnight high was 6.84. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 9.42. Overnight high was 9.58. MWZ is unch and near 9.37. Overnight high was 9.47.
US Dollar is higher US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver and copper are lower. Coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher.
It appears that the Railroad and unions have agreed on a new contract that avoids the pending strike. This was key to continue to move grains and goods across the US. USDA will finally release 4 weeks of US weekly export sales today. Wire services look for 900-2,250 mt wheat or 33-82 mil bu, 1,700-3,400 mt corn or 67-133 mil bu and 2,500-5,300 mt soybeans or 91-194 mil bu.
The US has removed almost all the rain from the forecast for at least the next two weeks with above too much above normal temperatures and bringing increase concern for winter planting. China and Russia are in key talks about Ukraine war. Russia and Turkey are in key talks about the Ukraine export corridor deal.
SX is higher. Wednesdays prices dropped due to increase Argentine soybean sales to China and rumors of Argentine soyoil traded to the US. NOPA’s August crush is estimated at 166 mil bu which would be up 5 pct year-on-year and the second largest August crush ever. SX is holding near the 200 DMA. Canada est 2022 canola crop at 19.9 mmt vs 13.7 ly.
Corn prices rallied from overnight lows on reports that US rail strike has been avoided. US ethanol plants would have had to slow without rail corn. US harvest nears bit farmer is still unwilling to sell at these prices. Basis remains strong. Weekly ethanol production was down 2 pct while stocks are up 14 pct from last year.
US wheat futures are lower. Futures rallied on Wednesday with KC and Chicago making 10-week highs and MLS made a 7-week high. The market was worried about the potential rail strike and ongoing dryness across the Plains. Today’s export sales report will be watched for any positive surprises with funds still short CBOT wheat.
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