Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 18 cents and near 15.27. SMH is near 480.1. BOH is near 60.62. CH is up 2 cents and near 6.85. WH is up 2 cents and near 7.50. KWH is up 5 cents and near 8.74. MWH is unch and near 9.21. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Corn futures have firmed on strong domestic basis, slow US and SA farmer selling and hopes World corn buyers will be forced to buy US corn with Brazil out of supplies and Ukraine war escalating. Ukraine exports could be only 6-7 mmt vs 20 ly and 27 in 2021. Some est Argentina corn crop at 44.5 vs USDA 52.0 and Brazil a record 125.0. Will China be forced to buy US corn?
SH is back near 15.27. SH has jumped 50 cents since Jan 25. SH held 50 DMA despite Argentina rains. US open unshipped soybean sales are second highest. China economy is recovering. USDA est China soybean imports at 96.0 mmt vs 91.5 ly. Can Brazil satisfy China 2023 import needs without China buying US? Some est Argentina soybean crop at 41.0 mmt vs USDA 45.5. Brazil could be record 153.0 mmt with harvest near 4-5 pct.
WH has rallied and is testing 7.50. Funds are still short record Chicago futures. US and Germany sending tanks to Ukraine has put a war risk back into EU Matif and US futures. Some are hearing that Russia and Ukraine peace talks have started with the potential solution by spring. US south plains is dry and in need of spring rains. KWH has jumped to +120 WH. MWH is +52 KWH. US producers should add to cash sales above 8.00 WH and 8.80 KWH. Russia large export surplus offers strong resistance to wheat prices.
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