Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
President Claudia Sheinbaum is set to speak with President Trump and white house officials today regarding trade between the US and Mexico. Mexico plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US with details coming out this Sunday. Sheinbaum has already stated that Mexico plans to seek new trade partners like Canada and others. There has been a movement in Canada the last couple days to boycott American made products and even remove them from selves. Canadians are actively seeking goods and services that are made in Canada. I imagine Mexico also sees a similar patriotic shift as well.
Macroeconomics:
The Dollar is attempting to fill a gap created back on election day between 103.5 and 103.80 on the index. The Euro has jumped in the last few days as the dollar dropped from above 107.00 to lows today of 103.80. If you were planning a European vacation, it may have just gotten a bit more expensive. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso were not as reactive to the decrease in the dollar index as they both are sitting just above their recent lows.
Ag Fundamentals:
Weekly export sales were mostly in line with expectations. Corn at the top end of the estimate range and beans near the bottom. Wheat export sales were also in line with expectations with 2025/2026 wheat sales reporting just over the top end of it’s estimate range. The USDA reported another 20K MT flash sale of soybean oil to unknown destination this morning; this is the second 20K MT sale to unknown in the last 2 days.
Weather:
The US drought monitor shows the most significant change week-over-week was further degradation in northern Missouri and central Illinois. South Dakota, Nebraska, parts of Iowa and Minnesota seem to be the most at risk of drought effecting farm operations this coming spring.
The US Dollar gaped higher on election day. The gap is from 103.50 to 103.80 on the index, and it is attempting to fill that gap today with lows of 103.80. Of the foreign currencies, the Euro has recovered the best against the dollar, followed by the Japanese yen. The Canadian dollar has barely moved off it’s lows and a similar story for the Mexican peso.
South America’s Soil Moisture has a couple areas that are deficient and may not receive sufficient rain for another 10 days. Southern growing areas in Argentina will get a shower in the next few days, and rains are expected in Brazil’s central regions.
WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
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EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
This morning the US reported a sale of 20K MT of soybean oil to unknown destinations. South Korea has bought another nearly 100K Mt of milling wheat from the US and Canada.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 63 ringgit overnight, now at 4480.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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