Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices drifted lower as the lack of progress in peace talks between the US and Iran offer little direction for the market. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME is slipped 0.5% to $13,290. Key resistance for the metal on the upside is seen at $13,525. The most-active copper contract on the SHFE sank 0.7% to $14,988. Firmer demand in China has been supportive of prices recently, but there are indications that could be waning. SHFE copper ended the week down 0.31%, while the premium paid over SHFE prices to buy copper in the spot market has swung to a discount of 5 yuan per ton, following a premium of 115 yuan on April 15. Broader and more sustained moves in the metals market are dependent upon clear signals from macro and geopolitical developments.
The International Copper Study Group is projecting a 96,000 ton market surplus in 2026, reversing a previous forecast of a deficit of 150,000 due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. The ICSG also expects a surplus of 377k,000 tons ion 2027 and cautioned that ongoing risks could impact market balances. lobal refined copper usage is now expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, down from a prior estimate of 2.1%, and by 2% in 2027. Chinese demand is projected to rise 1.9% in 2026, with growth of 1.3% anticipated in other regions, ICSG said, adding that consumption in the European Union and Japan would remain subdued, while Asia will continue to drive global growth. Global refined copper production is forecast to expand 0.4% in 2026, constrained by limited concentrate availability, offset in part by higher secondary output, before accelerating by 3% in 2027 as concentrate production improves and new capacity is added.
Zinc: Zinc rose 0.6% to $3,473.
Aluminum: Aluminum dropped 0.6% to $3,598.
Tin: Tin gained 0.4% to $50,400.
Lead: Lead added 0.3% to $1,961.
Nickel: Nickel rose 0.1% to $18,750. French miner Eramet said it was planning to halt production at its Weda Bay nickel mine in Indonesia next month. Additionally, fears over sulphuric acid shortages have hit local producers in the country, who have warned that a new ore pricing formula will increase production costs significantly.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: June COMEX contracts edged lower despite a weaker dollar and a rally in the equities, a move counter to recent dynamics where gold has traded in line with risk-on moves. Oil prices are little changed, though remain elevated, reinforcing the inflationary environment that is likely to keep the Fed on hold and lead to consolidated moves in gold for the time-being. Gold is on track for its first weekly decline after four-straight weeks of gains.
Price direction in gold continues to take its cues from the oil market, keeping the risk of near-term dollar strength and elevated inflation in focus. Brent crude above $100, stalled peace talks, and US-Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz are likely to prevent a breakout higher. Persistent uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has kept risk sentiment fragile and maintained the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.
On the macro front, Fed easing expectations continue to remain favorable to gold prices over the longer-term, given weakness in the labor market. Longer-run inflation expectations at the time-being are also offering resistance to higher yields as the Fed should remain biased towards policy-easing given the weakness in the labor market. Still, safehaven demand for the dollar remains the largest obstacle to a gain in prices.
Silver: Silver futures are flat at $75.47.
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