Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
The US and Ukraine has drafted a cease-fire agreement that Russia has yet to sign. Russia’s President Putin expressed optimism about the ceasefire and stated he would like to see lasting peace in the region. Putin also expressed caution, giving the main reason they have not signed a deal yet is due to concerns that the temporary peace would give Ukraine time to reinforce their units in Kyiv. For now “Cautiously optimistic” is all we get out of the Kremlin.
Ag Fundamentals:
Not much optimism around corn this morning with heavy call liquidation to start the morning. Over the coming weeks there will be little opportunity for corn to rally. Bulls would like to see South American production numbers adjusted lower due to pollination issues in Brazil’s second crop, but bears will keep hounding the US projected corn acres at +94M acres. Corn exports sales were over 2.1M bushels higher than the previous week, but the US farmer still has 15-20% old crop left to sell and ethanol stocks are at all time highs as margins tighten. The largest corn buyer, by far, was Mexico- accounting for nearly half of the 980K MT sales. Soybean exports sales were higher than expected and over 14.65M bushels more than the previous week. China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands were the largest bean buyers. Argentina’s port works lift their short-lived strike on Thursday which is most likely why soybean meal is down -1% today. a meeting is scheduled for Monday afternoon between the Union SOEA and the Federation Aceitera organization. Commitment of Traders report will be out later this afternoon, we’ll see how leaky the funds are.
Corn Export Sales for 2024/2025 marketing year for week ending 3/7: 980.7K MT
Soybean Export Sales for 2024/2025 marketing year for week ending 3/7: 794.8K MT
Wheat Export Sales for 2024/2025 marketing year for week ending 3/7: 866K MT
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
South Korea bought over 200K MT of animal feed corn between a few different tenders.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 39 ringgit overnight, at 4578.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
