Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
President Trump issued a restatement yesterday evening that Mexico and Canada should expect a 25% tariff starting tomorrow. Trump is serious about his threats and to take them lightly would be a mistake in the first couple years of his second term. He has several mandates from the majority of the US, one major one being – lock down the boarders. You don’t get crowds of people outside of the US to turn around by being a nice negotiator. If you leave room for HOPE, it’s not as effective. ICE is actively shipping people back to their countries of origin and using every available resource including military aircraft and Guantanamo Bay detention center as means to achieve a goals of less boarder crossings. Tariffs on our neighboring countries is another tactic by this administration to build security. Some HOPE that there will be a grace period; in which both of our neighboring trade partners will have time to adjust policies allocate support to the boarder in order to lessen or erase the imposed tariffs. Mexico is our largest importer of Corn and Canada imports US ethanol. Below I have a timeline if the previous trade war between the US and China. Chinese markets are closed for the holiday, but if they are included (10% proposed tariff) in tomorrow’s announcements, then we should expect a market reacting come Monday morning.
US-CHINA TRADE WAR TIMELINE
|
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
