Written Commentary
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Export sales came in solid for corn, toward the top of the estimate range at 1.661 MMT last week. Soybeans at 1.491 MMT and soymeal at 208K MT were in line with expectations. Wheat and soybean oil fell short of trade estimates. News of Argentina possibly losing 1 MMT soybean production due to hot/dry weather may not be enough to cover the added production to the entire Brazilian crop. Average estimates still have total soybean production between Argentina and Brazil at 221 million MT despite the drop in Argentina. Estimates for both countries reach as high as 225 million MT. The dollar index has dropped to 107.50 with a year to date low of 107.08. Between investments around AI data centers and the Saudi Prince’s 600 billion dollar investment in the US, optimism around many American companies is swirling. Caterpillar stock moving recently on news of new construction project, etc. Money is flowing into the equity markets with the S&P reaching record close yesterday as President Trump asked the Fed to drop interest rates. Speculation around crude oil has not changed this morning following his comments to both OPEC about lowing oil prices. Aside for the speculation about tariffs, the size of them and who will feel the most pain, there is a feeling of momentum that the roaring 20s are far from over. There is a major difference between now and the early 2020s, cash on hand. There is less room for speculation in the average balance sheet so i do not think we will se as much fun money jumping into commodities. Debt is still a huge problem in the US and Inflation has slowed but is still putting pressure on the economy.
WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 164,800 | 200K-600K | 50,500 | 0-50K |
Corn | 1,661,000 | 700K-1,700K | 9,200 | 0-50K |
Beans | 1,491,800 | 600K-1,800K | 900 | 0-50K |
Meal | 208,700 | 100K-450K | 1,500 | 0 |
Soyoil | 2,900 | 10K-60K | 0 | 0 |
Export & World News
Iran has issued an international tender to buy up to 120K MT of animal feed corn, 120K Mt of feed barley and 60K MT of soymeal. Bangladesh is looking to buy up[ to 50K MT of rice.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 26 ringgit overnight, at 4216.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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