Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
In order to continue feeding the bull, both the corn and bean markets will need China to step in and make purchases. Hearing arguments on both sides of the tariff conversation. Some believe the response from China was mild and could lead to a good faith conversation, and others are convinced that China is willing to do whatever it takes to plow their agenda through the course of history. China has been taking steps in the last several years to strengthen their trade relationships with a multitude of other large global players. Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on all BRICS nations if they create their own currency to weave around the US sanctions. That cohort is Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa alongside recently added countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. China’s economy is weaker today than it was at the beginning of the 1st Trump term, and they are more reliant on the American consumer. Recently China has delayed and redirected 600K MT of wheat imports. These cargoes are being resold to Southeast Asia. China is sitting on a large supply of both corn and wheat after growing a large crop this last year. EIA weekly ethanol production and stocks report will release later today with export sales tomorrow. The dollar is weaker overnight, and crude oil is also taking steps back in anticipation of both increases in production and possibly a period of weaker global economics due to trade negotiations.
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
South Korea has issued a tender to buy up to 50K MT of milling wheat and 140K MT of animal feed corn from the US. Japan is also looking for about 97K MT of food-quality wheat from the US and Canada. Corn in the PNW is the most competitively priced globally today. Private US exporters reported a sale of 330K MT of corn to Mexico for the 25/26 marketing year.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 26 ringgit overnight, at 4334.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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