Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will announce their early estimate for planting projections here in the US later today. The average trade guess for corn this morning is 93.5 million planted acres vs. the 90.6 million the US planted last year. The average soybean acres estimate is at 84.5 million acres vs. the 87.1 million we planted last year. Ethanol stocks yesterday above 27.5 million barrels may put pressure on plant margins around the country. Stocks haven’t shot up this high since the country shut down due to COVID lock downs. Export sales looked pretty poor this morning compared to the last several weeks. Corn, wheat and soymeal export sales were all reported below the estimate ranges and new corn corn was the only number that fell above it’s range. This morning drought monitor update shows more dry conditions increasing in Illinois, Indiana, and central Iowa. Northern Nebraska and Southern South Dakota are currently in the worse shape, but moderate drought has taken hold on a majority of the major growing areas of the US.
Weekly Export Sales
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 269,000 | 300K-600K | 5,000 | 0-100K |
Corn | 794,700 | 900K-1,650K | 128,000 | 0-100K |
Beans | 410,900 | 100K-600K | 3,600 | 0-50K |
Meal | 176,500 | 200K-500K | 200 | 0-25K |
Soyoil | 18,400 | 0-25K | 0 | 0-5K |
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
USTR proposed fees on vessels entering US ports.
$1.5 million fee for >50% Chinese-built vessels
$1 million fee for 50% Chinese-built vessels
$750K fee for 25%-50% Chinese-built vessels
$500K for 1%-25% Chinese-built vessels
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
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