Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
Brazilian bean harvest has progressed from 23-25% early last week to 35-38% harvested today. Dryness in the southern Brazilian regions creates a good argument to lower bean production, taking estimates from +170 MMT to near 168 MMT. The USDA is estimating 169 MMT while Conab is sitting at 166 MMT. Weather in Brazil over the next two weeks will be dryer than normal in areas that will continue to harvest beans. Argentina is expecting some heavier rains in their bean growing areas and temps will drop between now and the first week of March. The 2nd corn crop area in Brazil will see about 80% of normal rainfall over the next week and planting is expected to continue at normal pace. Brazil corn stocks to use ratio is low, at 22.1% and they are estimated to only have about 8 days of corn ownership. Corn here in the US still remains the most business savvy crop to plant this spring. Most estimates are expecting corn acres to be north of 93 million and up to 96 million on the high end of estimates. Action of the US dollar will be one of the main drivers for wheat moving forward, but there have been rumors of production losses in Ukraine/Russia growing areas.
The Next 7 days of Precip in South America shows 2-3 inches of rain hitting the central regions of Brazil and south-central areas of Argentina.
High Temperatures in Argentina will begin to decrease to more reasonable levels by early March.
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 105 ringgit overnight, now at 4559.
Malaysian plantations have had an abundant amount of rain recently that may take up to a month for the ground to recover from the floods.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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