Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
China’s government issued two warnings to Chinese citizens traveling to the US on Wednesday. China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a travel advisory, urging travelers to “assess potential risks and exercise caution”. They also sent an advisory to students studying in the US to “evaluate risks”, mainly regarding student visas. I take this as another sign China is digging their heels in against the US during this trade war.
MACROECONOMICS:
President Trump took to Truth Social this morning to express his disappointment in Jerome Powell’s tone during yesterday’s interview at the Economic Club of Chicago. Trumps wants the Fed to cut rates, and Jerome needs to see how tariffs develop and how it all effects inflation before he feels comfortable cutting rates again. The Fed rate is 87% likely to be unchanged at the May 7th meeting.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Markets will close their normal day session today and will not reopen until Sunday evening. Livestock and lumber markets will reopen on Monday morning. Export sales this morning were neutral to bullish across the board.
WEATHER
The US drought monitor was basically unchanged this week. Southern Nebraska, Southern Iowa and western Kansas have experienced drier than normal weather. Plenty of rain coming to the southern Midwest and delta region this weekend and early next week.
WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
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Export & World News
Algeria bought about 570K MT of milling wheat which closed yesterday. Iran is looking to buy up to 120K MT of animal feed corn and 120K MT of animal feed barley.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 1 ringgit, at 4016.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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