Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
A weaker US dollar has helped support commodities and has given the US an edge to compete in the global market. The dollar is currently still trading near 100.00 on the index. That is over 10 points down from the 52-weeek high of 110.18 back in mid January. Crude oil is slightly higher this morning with nearby futures trading above 62.00 per barrel. The USDA reported 121K MT of soybeans sold to unknown destinations on Friday. China only imported 17.11M MT of soybeans in the first quarter of this year, -8% from last year. Soybean bulls are still waiting to hear if Washington has made any progress on bio-diesel policy. Managed Money went from a negative soyoil position to holding over 30K contracts of length last week. The Russia/Ukraine talks alongside nuclear talks with Iran are tugging on the wheat market, chi wheat down a dime to star this week. Planting progress and winter wheat crop conditions are out later this afternoon. Expectations are that planting progress fell back closer to the average pace due to the heavy rainfall in the south last week.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
The 5-day weather outlook shows chances of light rain in most US growing regions, but no major storms hitting the Midwest. The 6-10 day forecast is expected to be wetter than normal and temps should be high enough to leave behind the threat of snow for now. Areas effected by the major rain storms in the mid-south and southern states are starting to recover and may see field work begin by the middle of the week.
Commitment of Traders Report 4/11/25
Managed Money Weekly Changes
Corn: -3,181
Soybeans: -20,600
Soymeal: +3,103
Soyoil: +35,887
Chi Wheat: +10,000
KC Wheat: -4,159
Canola: +36,385
Export & World News
The USDA announced two sales of US soybeans to unknown destinations, totaling 121K MT (4.44M bushels). Jordan issued an international tender to buy up to 120K Mt of milling wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 42 ringgit overnight, now at 4170.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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