BQC Afternoon Comments Mar 19.2025

Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve decided to leave rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. The last time the Fed cut rates was mid December 2024 when they shaved off 25 basis points. The decision today was an 11-1 vote in favor of no change. Four of the 12 fed officials said they expect zero cuts the rest of the year vs. at least one in December. Overall, the Fed believes there will be 2 more cuts this year, inflation may increase higher from here, and the US economy experience less than 2% GDP growth this year. The dollar reacted lower to the announcement today. US equity markets bounced higher including riskier assets. The next Fed meeting will conclude on May 7th with about a 20% chance of a rate 25 basis point rate cut then. Unemployment claims out tomorrow at 7:30am CST followed by existing home sales at 9:00am CST.
Ag Fundamentals: . The USDA made $10 billion in economic aid available to farmers today. Applications for the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) sent in today can expect to see their check in about 3 business days. Below I have the expected payments per acre according to commodity. Corn receiving the most relief of the highest producing row crops. Farmers preparing for spring planting may be influenced to change their planting intentions by these payments. Export sales expected to be slightly higher than the week prior according to estimates. Ethanol production hit a record high for this time of year at 1.105M barrels per day. Ethanol stocks lower however, down 801K barrels from last week’s reports stocks. The Grain stocks report and the prespective plantings report will be out on March 31st.