BQC Afternoon Comments Mar 10.2025

Macroeconomics: Recession fear officially made it’s presence known today as the US equity market has the worst day since September of 2022. The S&P 500 closed 2.7% lower and nearly -9% down from it’s mid-February highs. The VIX (Volatility Index) was up 20% today and +80% since mid-February. Uncertainty around global trade, the precise health of the US economy, and the volatility kicking weak hands off the roller coaster ride can all be considered reasons for today’s markets taking one to the chin. The US dollar still finishing the day below 104.00 on the index and crude oil was down over $1 today to close below $68/barrel.       
Ag Fundamentals: This morning the US recorded a flash sale of 126K MT (4.63M bu) of corn to Japan and 195K MT (7.16M bu) of soybeans to an unknown destination. Wheat led the grain market despite wheat export inspections coming in lower than expected at 8M bushels. Corn export inspections at 72M bushels were above expectations and much higher than the 48M needed each week to meet the USDA’s 2.45 billion bushel estimate for the year. This was a marketing year high for corn inspections and more than any week in the last couple years. Soybeans also reported inspections on the high side of estimates at 31M bushels. Canola and soybean oil were hit the hardest following the weekend announcement of 100% on canola oil and meal heading form Canada to China. Canola was down the limit today -40 Canadian dollars per ton.