Written Commentary
Macroeconomics: There was a bit of a headline roller coaster that shook equity markets today. We started the day with news of the SEC planning to drop the lawsuit against the crypto exchange Coinbase, just to find out 1.5 billion worth of Ethereum was hacked from the BYBIT hard wallet (largest hack to date). Additionally you saw news of the DOJ launching a probe into United Health and it’s stock tanked while news of China possibly having another coronavirus outbreak leaked later in the session to collapse the broader market while rallying stocks like Moderna and Pfizer. The S&P 500 hit all time highs earlier this week, just to close this week near February lows. Small caps got hit the hardest. The dollar felt some strength as the world awaits any clues to what the US may do in the next 14 days regarding trade policies. This morning the market digested a Services PMI number below 50 for the first time since January of 2023. Indicating that the services businesses are experiencing contraction rather than expansion for the first time in a while.
Ag Fundamentals: US wheat export sales are totaling to about 726 million for this 24/25 marketing year. That is the second highest pace with only 2020/2021 above. Russia dropped their wheat export tax by -24.6% to 2742 rouble per ton. Rain relief expected over the next week in Argentina. Argentina’s extremely hot temps have raised concerns of crop conditions as their crop is in the final stretch of it’s growing season. I believe we can expect to see a lower production estimate for Argentinian corn and beans on next month’s WASDE. Clear skies are expected for eastern Brazil as they begin to roll out the combines and harvest equipment. some scatter showers in the rest of Brazil’s growing regions could create some speed bumps over the weekend, but overall they are on pace for a normal harvest and not raising huge concerns over timing of the 2nd corn plant
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Disaggregated Futures and Options Report shows Managed money repurchased corn to add over 20K contracts of length, covered over 20K Chi wheat short contracts, and sold beans and soymeal.
Snowfall between now and Monday evening next week is mostly clear for the Midwest, but between Tuesday morning and Saturday next week the GFS is expecting to see concentrated snowstorms travel through Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. 10-11 inches is expected in those states.
January/February/March La Nina Pattern has so far been a good representation of the first two months of 2025.
El Nino Southern Oscillation Model Predictions suggest we will remain in a weak La Nina until May/June/July when a neutral environment is expected.
CALENDAR SPREADS
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CH25/CK25 | -13 3/4 | +1 | -21 1/2 | 64% |
SH25/SK25 | -17 3/4 | – 1/4 | -27 1/4 | 65% |
SK25/SN25 | -15 3/4 | -1 | -27 1/2 | 57% |
SH25/SN25 | -33 1/2 | -1 1/4 | -54 1/2 | 61% |
MWH25/MWK25 | -14 3/4 | +1/4 | -21 | 70% |
WH25/WK25 | -14 | +3/4 | -16 1/2 | 85% |
KWH25/KWK25 | -12 1/2 | 0 | -16 3/4 | 75% |
COST OF CARRY
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Futures Settlements & Technicals
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