BQC Afternoon Comments Feb 19.2025

Ag Fundamentals: Pressure on bean prices coming out of South America with Brazil deciding to keep their mandatory biodiesel blend rate at 14% rather than increasing it to 15%. Brazil is 25% harvested and still has more than the entire volume of our US bean crop left to cut, not to mention Argentina’s 49 MMT. According to Reuters, Mato Grosso may see a record 66.5 bags per hectare and may produce over 50 MMT. (66.5 bags per hectare is about 60.85 bushels per acre). Mato Grosso will continue to make solid harvest progress until rains slow them down this weekend. EIA ethanol weekly production and stocks will release tomorrow and export sales on Friday, due to the Monday holiday pushing the schedule forward. Corn usage was not adjusted in the February USDA report, and many expect the March WASDE to catch corn demand up to speed, cutting ending stock below 1.5 billion bushels. The extremely cold temperatures across the US growing areas are caused some wheat feathers to ruffle but the effects of today’s weather on the wheat conditions will not become clear until April/May.