BQC Afternoon Comments Feb 18.2025

Ag Fundamentals: January soybean crush was reported at 200.4 million bushels, the second largest January on NOPA’s books. Crush volume was down from the December record highs of 206.6 million bushels. Soyoil stocks (1.274 billion lbs) were estimated at 6 month highs at the end of January. Soyoil stocks are expected to increase again this month, biofuel makers are helping create demand. Funds have extended their soybean oil long position to a record 144K contracts. Soybean inspections were recorded at 26.5 million bushels, below expectations. 8 million went to China and 5 million to Egypt. Corn may have set a 35-year record for the most recorded (above 6 million MT) corn exports in the Month of January. Corn export inspections today were reported above expectations and a marketing year high at 63.4 million bu. Mexico took 18 million, Japan, 10 million bu, and Spain/South Korea both took 8 million each. Today the cheapest corn to buy on the global export market is sold out of the US PNW. Korea and Japan will continue to buy vessels from that origin. Latin America and Mexico will be the main buyers in the Gulf. Wheat export inspections were at 9 million bu, below the 16 million/week needed to reach the USDA’s estimate. 
Weather: Recent rain hitting the Ohio River Valley has several river terminals hitting flood stages that prevents loading. Evansville at 42 feet and Memphis at 25 feet. The high water on the Ohio River is expected to stick around for the next week or two. St. Louis and north on the other hand is dealing with low water. The Northern plains and northwestern Midwest is still experiencing drought conditions and most of the US will be dryer than normal over the next 10 days. Hearing the bitter cold weather has also cause rail lines to run less efficiently, due to labor intensive switches being more difficult at these low temps.