Written Commentary
The Mississippi River Gauge at Memphis from 2015-2025 is presenting a concerning pattern of lower highs and lower lows. We will need rain to hit the major river valley between now and spring in order to comfortably recover.
Export Sales Estimates (Week ending 1/31/25)
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | ______ | 200K-500K | ______ | 0-50K |
Corn | ______ | 850K-1,500K | ______ | 0-100K |
Beans | ______ | 300K-1,100K | ______ | 0-50K |
Meal | ______ | 200K-500K | ______ | 0 |
Soyoil | ______ | (15K)-30K | ______ | 0 |
EIA Weekly Ethanol Production (For Week Ending 1/31/2025 )
Ethanol Production hit a record high for this time of year at 1.112 million barrels per day. This was above expectations and is the highest record production in 10 weeks.
EIA Weekly Ethanol Stocks
Ethanol Stocks increased 690K barrels week-over-week to 26.412 million barrels. This was above expectations and marked the highest stock number for this marketing year.
EIA Weekly Implied Corn Usage
Implied Corn Usage sharply increased and may influence the USDA to increase their usage estimate in next week’s report by 30-50 million bushels
CALENDAR SPREADS
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CH25/CK25 | -11 1/2 | -1 1/4 | -21 1/2 | 53% |
SH25/SK25 | -15 1/4 | -2 1/4 | -27 1/2 | 55% |
SK25/SN25 | -14 1/2 | -1 3/4 | -27 1/2 | 53% |
SH25/SN25 | -29 3/4 | -4 | -54 3/4 | 54% |
MWH25/MWK25 | -9 3/4 | -1 | -20 3/4 | 47% |
WH25/WK25 | -12 1/4 | – 1/2 | -16 1/4 | 75% |
KWH25/KWK25 | -9 1/2 | – 1/4 | -16 1/2 | 58% |
COST OF CARRY
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Futures Settlements & Technicals
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