Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 8 cents and near 12.07. SMN is near 370.8. BON is near 43.13. CN is up 3 cents and near 4.63. WN is up 12 cents and near 6.16. KWN is upn11 cents and near 6.43. MWN is up 5 cents and near 7.14. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch and near $79. UN April food index was higher led by vegoil, cereal, meat and offset lower dairy and sugar.
SN is near 12.07. SN-SU spread is now +13. US soybean export commit is down 17 pct vs last year and USDA est of a 14 pct drop. Heavy rains continues to S Brazil. RGDS is 12 pct of the total Brazil soybean crop. SMN is up $46 from lows on lower South America supplies. BON is down 8 cents from high and pct of crush is now below 37 precent. Bears see soybean rally short covering not yet bull market, Matif rapeseed futures near 6 month high on EU crop worries.
CN is near 4.63. CN-CU spread narrowed into a 7 cent carry. Midwest rains could slow plantings but increase soil reserves. Weekly ethanol production was up 3 pct vs last week. Stocks were down 1 pct vs last week and lowest since Feb 2. Weekly US corn export commit is up 23 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26 pct. Trade looking for lower US 2023/24 corn carryout next week but higher 2024/25. Argentina lowered corn crop to 46 mmt vs 49 previous and USDA 55. One private crop watcher still est Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs one commercial at 124 and USDA 124.
WN is near 6.16. WN-WU spread is near 20 cent carry. US HRW south plains forecast is drier. Russia is forecast is drier. EU is wet especially west. Wheat could be about weather (US, EU, Black Sea), with May a critical month. Old crop US wheat export commit is down 1 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 6 pct drop. Matif funds flipped from a large short to new long and first long since July ,2023. Algeria appears to be buying wheat near $248 c&f which is up $20 from previous purchase.
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