Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are mixed. SK is up 5 cents and near 15.31. SMK is near 479.2. BOK is near 62.51. CK is down 2 cents and near 6.57. WK is down 8 cents and near 7.42. KWK is down 8 cents and near 8.48. MWK is down 7 cents and near 9.03. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton are lower.
Soybeans are higher on talk of lower Argentina supply. BA exchange dropped crop rating to record low 3 pct. Estimated crop at 33.5 mmt vs 38.0 previous and USDA 41.0. Some in trade beginning to lower crop closer to 30.0 mmt. This is a problem given fact over last 10 years, Argentina crush has been 36-43 mmt. Argentina is World largest soymeal exporter but Brazil is catching up. Argentina will need to import soybeans from Brazil. Weekly US export sales est near 300-850 mt vs 512 last week. There is talk that China is short large number of March soybean puts.
Corn futures are a little lower. Trade was awaken with a shot of 2023 reality after USDA Outlook 2023 US numbers. USDA raised US corn acres, est record corn trend yield, raised feed sse (normal with bigger crop), raised exports? Raised carryout and lowered average farm price. BA exchange lowered crop rating to record low 3 pct. Estimated crop at 41.0 mmt vs 44.5 previous and USDA 47.0. Some in trade beginning to lower crop closer to 40.0 mmt. China offered Ukraine peace plan which Russia would stop invasion at current position which would allow Russia to retain Ukraine land. West would also drop Russia sanctions. Ukraine and West will not agree to that. Weekly US export sales are est near 500-1,300 mt vs 1,024 last week. Weekly US ethanol data was negative with stocks near record high.
Wheat futures continues to trade lower. Lower Russia wheat prices continues to offer resistance. Some say top 3 Russian grain companies hold most of the wheat and are aggressive in selling wheat for export at lower prices. US south plains will remain dry with above normal temp. Could see showers late next week but mostly in east. USDA raised US 2023 wheat acres, est near record trend yield, raised feed use (normal with bigger crop), raised exports? Raised carryout and lowered average farm price. Weekly US export sales are est near 150-500 mt vs 209 last week.
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