Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is unch and near 14.83. SMH is near 459.3. BOH is near 63.61. CH is up 2 cents and near 6.56. WH is up 4 cents and near 7.50. KWH is up 5 cents and near 8.46. MWH is up 5 cents and near 9.09. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is mixed. Gold, silver, and coffee are lower. Copper, cocoa and cotton are higher.
Not a lot of new news in soybeans. Argentina and S Brazil are still dry. There is some Argentina rain in the 8-15 day forecast. Dalian soybean, soymeal, SBO and palmoil futures are lower. There is concern about China demand for US soybeans. Weekly US soybean export sales are delayed until Friday. Brazil soybean and soymeal export prices are lower than US. Brazil farmer selling remains slow. Argentina new crop farmer selling is only 2.6 mt vs 4.7 ly. USDA Jan 12 report key with trade focusing on US demand and Argentina crop size. Matif rapeseed prices ended lower.
Corn futures are higher after 2 days of selling. Argentina and S Brazil are still dry. There is some Argentina rain in the 8-15 day forecast. Dalian corn futures are higher. There is concern about China demand for US corn. USDA estimates imports are 18 mmt vs 22 ly. Some are near 25; 5 US , 10 Brazil and 10 Ukraine. Total commit of all 3 is near 8 mmt. Weekly US corn export sales are delayed until Friday. Ukraine export prices are lower than US. Brazil farmer selling remains slow. Argentina new crop farmer selling is only 6.8 mt vs 14.1 ly. USDA Jan 12 report key with trade focusing on US demand and Argentina crop size. Matif corn prices ended lower. Concern about domestic demand and lack of new export demand is offering resistance.
Wheat futures are trying to bounce off recent lows. Funds turned sellers on lower Russian prices and slow demand for US wheat. US SRW export prices are near EU but HRW is still well above EU. US plains remain dry. US wheat future are at 3 week lows. Argentina farmer has sold 6.6 mmt od wheat vs 13.4 ly. Matif wheat futures are also at 2 week lows. Wheat followed lower energy prices and concern about drop in US/Global economy. N Africa is dry but import demand remains slow due to concern about revenue to pay for imports. USDA Jan 12 report is not expected to see major changes in US/World wheat numbers.
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