Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 8 cents and near 13.81. SMZ is near 400.9. BOZ is near 65.11. CZ is down 5 cents and near 6.06. WZ is down 18 cents and near 7.62. KWZ is down 17 cents and near 8.35. MWZ is down 11 cents and near 8.83.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, copper, coffee and cocoa are higher. Silver, sugar and cotton are lower. US Central Bank minutes confusing, hawkish nearby, dovish later in 2023.
Heavy rains today move in ND and SE MN and TX. US Midwest 6-10 day forecast is mostly cool with below rains around Great Lakes, normal to above south and SE Midwest and normal across south plains. 8-14 also cool with below rains north. Normal south plains, Delta and SE. August has been quiet in the tropics. NOAA now projects above normal activity late summer and early fall. Risk is for Delta/SE harvest and quality.
Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour next week. 12 of last 20 years tour has underestimated USDA Sep soybean yield, 7 above. 13 years of 20 tour corn yield was below USDA Sep( 2 bpa) 7 years above (1 bpa).
Soybean futures are lower on renewed export demand concerns and higher Dollar, China US relations continues to decline. Some feel 30 pct of US Midwest crop still needs rains. Chicago soymeal basis is firm at +50, soyoil basis is +9.5 cents. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near -100/200 old crop and 300-700 new. SX could test support near 13.50.
Corn futures are lower on renewed export demand concerns and higher Dollar. Brazil and Ukraine exports offers resistance. Approaching US harvest also limits new spec buying. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 0-300 old crop and 100-600 new. CZ is below 20 DMA support.
Wheat futures continue to slide lower due to talk of increase Ukraine exports, forecasted US south plains rains and Iraq passing on USS wheat tender. US announced a plan to commit $68 million dollars to buy 150 mt Ukraine wheat. Managed funds are now estimated to be net short 36,000 Chicago wheat futures with WZ making new lows for the move. Weekly US wheat export sales est near 200-600 mt.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
