Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 20 cents and near 14.68. SMH is near 460.6. BOH is near 58.89. CH is up 4 cents and near 6.44. WH is up 11 cents and near 7.45. KWH is up 10 cents and near 8.43. MWH is up 4 cents and near 9.06. US stocks are higher, Crude, gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Both US and EU Central Banks are scheduled to raise interest rates this week. China Covid cases are increasing.
Soybean futures are lower after better than expected weekend central Argentina rains. USDA left US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 220 mil bu versus estimates closer to 238. USDA also left Brazil and Argentina crops unchanged and China soybean imports also unchanged. SH support is near 14.53. Soyoil continues lower and now below 59 cents. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices were lower. Palmoil and soyoil are sharply lower. Last week, Funds increased net soybean long by 24,000 and lowered soyoil by 43,000.
Corn futures tested 6.35 on slow export demand but did rally over 6.45 post USDA report. There were bombing of the Odessa port and 1.7 million people are without power. Additional concern about demand for US exports and collapsing US ethanol margins offers resistance. Brazil corn remains cheaper than US and to date Mexico demand for US corn is below last year. Normal 2023/24. North hemisphere weather and record US yield could loosen tight US old crop supply. Dalian corn futures are lower. Last week Funds reduced corn long by 71,000
Wheat futures are higher on concern over Black Sea exports. Some also feel Wheat futures are oversold. Some feel that World exporters stocks to use ratio could drop in 2023/24 due to lower Black Sea wheat planted acres and potential lower US HRW crop. Black Sea prices were largely unchanged: the USDA made no changes to crop estimates but raised Russia exports by 1.0 mmt and 1.5 mmt in Ukraine. Egypt continues to buy Russian wheat in private deals.
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