Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 1 cent and near 14.63. SMZ is near 428.1. BOZ is near 65.10. CZ is up 4 cents and near 6.83. WZ is up 7 cents and near 8.37. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 9.16. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 9.20. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is unch. Gold, silver, copper and cotton are lower. Coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Trade trying to even up positions before Fed meeting.
SX and SMZ began the week with modest gains with BOZ lower. China soymeal sales were sharply higher at 440 mt, crush margins were reported to be weaker despite imported cheap Argentine beans. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices were higher, palmoil and soyoil lower. Weekly US export inspections of 519 mt took the season total to 34 mil bu. USDA weekly soybean crop rating dropped 1 pct to 55 pct G/E vs 58 last year with harvest is 3 pct done vs 5 average. One crop watcher lowered his US soybean yield .5 to 50.0. Brazil will soon start planting the 2023 soybean crop. Conditions are favorable. Brazil is expected to plant 105.5 mil acres vs US 87.5. Argentina fob soybean are $582 vs US $614, soymeal $499 vs US $527 and soyoil $1,199 vs US $1,628.
CZ is higher overnight. Dalian corn prices were lower. Weekly US export inspections of 549 mt took the season total to 45 mil bu. USDA weekly corn crop rating dropped 1 pct to 52 pct G/E vs 59 last year with harvest is 7 pct done vs 8 average. One crop watcher lowered his US corn yield 1.0 to 169.0.0. Brazil will soon start planting the 2023 corn crop. Conditions are favorable. Brazil to grow a 126 mmt crop vs 116 ly. Argentina fob corn is $276, Brazil $286 and Ukraine $261 vs US $324. A few Chinese company’s toured China corn crop and est crop at 240 mmt vs USDA 274. This could suggest China may need to import corn but could wait for Brazil 2023 crop. USDA estimates China corn imports near 18 mmt and domestic use at 295 mmt.
US wheat futures dropped 20-30¢ to start the week as Saudi bought hard wheat at a C&F price that was below the Fob value of SRW in the Gulf.US SRW is near $369 with Russia $320. More reports that Russian crop could be close to 100 mmt with the potential increase in exportable surplus, although Russian exports are running below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s 42 mmt export estimate. Weekly US wheat export inspections were 790 mt with season to date exports near 365 mil bu vs 285 ly. Weekly crop update estimated the spring wheat harvest at 94 pct. Winter plantings are 21 pct complete versus 17 average. Ongoing dryness in the Plains for the next two weeks along with significant heat will continue to pose germination concerns for the US winter wheat crop.
USDA estimates US net farm income the highest since 2012. This could slow cash sales for this tax year and could increase US 2023 crop acres. Informa estimated US 2023 corn acres near 91.5 million vs 88.6 in 2022, soybeans 88.9 vs 87.1, wheat 47.9 vs 46.3 and all crops 317.3 vs 311.9.
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