Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Lack of resting orders helped push futures higher. SX held support near 13.75 with next resistance is near 14.19.. Higher end of the trading range since August 1 is near 14.50. Next USDA US crop report and US and World supply and demand is Sep 12. US west Midwest is dry. US east and SE is wet. Argentina is dry. S Brazil rains are normal. Our weather guy released a special report this week that La Nina could last into January. This could suggest another dry year in South America. USDA report is Monday. Trade est US 2022 soybean crop at 4,496 mil bu vs USDA 4,531 and 2022/23 carryout at 247 vs USDA 245. Argentina fob soybean is near $571, Brazil, $606 and US $592. Argentina soymeal is $453 vs US $592. Argentina soyoil $1,264 vs US $1,585.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CZ held support near 6.71. Up trendline was also held. Next resistance is near 6.88 CZ this weeks high. Lack of US farmer selling offers support. Uncertainty after this weeks speech by Russia President that increased uncertainty over the futures of Ukraine export corridor also offered support to corn. Concern about lower US 2021/22 corn exports and approaching US harvest could offer resistance. Next USDA US crop report and US and World supply and demand is Sep 12. EU has a chance for rain. US west Midwest is dry. US east and SE is wet. Argentina is dry. S Brazil rains are normal. Most of Russia is cool and dry. Rains are in the forecast. Our weather guy released a special report this week that La Nina could last into January. This could suggest another dry year in South America, US SW and US south plains. Trade est US 2022 corn crop at 14,088 mil bu vs USDA 14,359 and 2022/23 carryout at 1,217 vs USDA 1,388. Some fear final US corn exports could be closer to 2,000 or could add 300 mil bu to the carryout. CONAB dropped Brazil 2021/22 corn crop 1.4 mmt to 113.3 vs USDA 116.0.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended sharply higher. Turn around Friday? Lack of resting orders either above or below the market adds to price volatility and reduces the ability for price discovery based on cash fundamentals.. WZ held support near 8.25, traded over Thursdays high and tested Wednesdays high near 8.73. Sharply lower Dollar lifted all commodity boats. This weeks speech by Russia President Increased uncertainty over the future of Ukraine export corridor also offered support to wheat. Concern about lower US 2022/23 wheat exports could offer resistance. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 618 mil bu vs USDA 610. Russia fob wheat is near $315, German $347 and US SRW $365. More are forecasting a record Russia wheat crop but exports to date are well below USDA 42 mmt forecast. EU has a chance for rain. Argentina is dry. Most of Russia is cool and dry. Rains are in the forecast. Our weather guy released a special report this week that La Nina could last into January. This could suggest another dry year for US SW and US south plains.
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