Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean ended higher. There may have been some liquidation of long corn and short soybean spreads. Weekly US soybean exports were 19.0 mil bu vs 10.2 ly. Season to date exports are near 33.5 mil bu vs 18.5 last year. USDA goal is 2,085 vs 2,145 ly. Some feel combination of increase competition from South America and reduced China imports could drop final exports to 1,900. Informa est US 2023 soybean planted acres near 88.9 million versus 87.4 this year. Double crop acres are 4.0 vs 3.5 and prevent plant 2.7 vs 6.0. Total US 2023 crop acres were estimated at 317.3 vs 311.9 this past year. USDA announced 136 mt US soybeans to China. Trade estimates US soybean crop 56 pct G/E vs 56 last week. US harvest could be near 5 pct. Soymeal gained on soyoil. World vegoil prices are lower led by palmoil.
CORN
Corn futures ended slightly higher, up 1 cent and near 6.78. Session range was 6.68 to 8.80. Corn may have been helped by liquidation of long soybean and short corn spreads. Appears CZ held 200DMA support near 6.67. Weekly US corn exports were 21.6 mil bu vs 15.8 ly. Season to date exports are near 45.1 mil bu vs 24.5 last year. USDA goal is 2,275 vs 2,475 ly. Some feel combination of increase competition from South America and Ukraine could drop final exports to 2,000. Informa est US 2023 corn planted acres near 91.5 million versus 88.6 this year. Prevent plant 2.7 vs 6.0. Total US 2023 crop acres were estimated at 317.3 vs 311.9 this past year. Trade estimates US corn crop 53 pct G/E vs 53 last week. 10 pct of the crop is estimated to be harvested versus 5 last week. Matif ended lower. On Friday, Coceral issued its first crop estimate since May at 52 mmt against 66 mmt previously. Trade estimates of the French crop are at or below 10 mmt. High corn prices and cheap ethanol imports are leading to possible plant closures in northern Europe. Ukraine Oct corn is -10CZ. USDA continues to est World corn trade at 183 mmt vs 203 last year. US 57 vs 63 ly. Ukraine 13 mmt vs 26 ly, Brazil 47 vs 44 and Argentina 41 vs 39 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Saudi bought 566 mt Nov-Feb at an average $368 basis with only Russian origin appearing to calculate. Iraq is expected soon also for 300kt. Matif wheat fell to a 9-day low on a mix of the Saudi results and spillover from the 30¢ drop in the US. US losses were a function of more big crop and export surplus numbers out of Russia, fears of another macro jolt to the US economy from the Fed on Wednesday plus the ongoing uncompetitiveness of US wheat on the export market. The problem for the US is that as it falls, the EU matches its losses almost one-for-one, and thus leaves the Fob spreads little changed. Black Sea cash markets remain tough to call but basis $320 for the nearby and $5 per month carry, the Saudi sale looked pretty close to Russian replacement. Weekly US wheat exports were 29.0 mil bu vs 20.8 ly. Season to date exports are near 264.9 mil bu vs 289.8 last year. USDA goal is 825 vs 800 ly. Informa est US 2023 wheat planted acres near 47.9 million versus 46.3 this year. They estimated 2022 wheat crop at 1,752 mil bu vs USDA 1,783. They est US 2023 wheat crop at 1,924.
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