Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
USDA estimated US 2022 soybean crop at 4,378 mil bu versus 4,496 expected. USDA dropped the yield to 50.5 from 51.9 and harvested acres from 87.2 to 86.6. USDA dropped US 2021/22 soybean exports 15 mil bu which increased carryout o 240. USDA then estimated total US 2022/23 soybean supply near 4.633 mil bu vs 4,526 in August. USDA then dropped US 2022/23 crush 20 mil bu. They then dropped soyoil biofuel use 200 mil bs and US soymeal exports 300 tst. USDA also dropped US 2022/23 exports 75 mil bu. All this left US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 200 mil bu. Some would suggest futures are not high enough to ration demand that much. USDA est China 2022/23 soybean imports down 1.0 mmt to 97.0. They continue to est Brazil 2023 soybean crop at 149.0 mmt vs 126.0 ly and Argentina 51.0 vs 44.0.
CORN
USDA reports are always interesting. Trade expected a negative soybean report, positive corn and neutral wheat. What they gave us was bullish soybeans, friendly corn and negative wheat. USDA estimated US 2022 corn crop at 13,944 mil bu versus 14,088 expected. USDA dropped the yield to 172.5 from 175.4 and harvested acres from 80.8 to 81.8. USDA dropped US 2021/22 FSI 20 mil bu and increased exports 25. USDA then estimated total US 2022/23 corn supply near 15,494 mil bu vs 15,913 in August. USDA then dropped US 2022/23 FSI 100 mil bu, ethanol 50 mil bu and exports 100 mil bu. All this left US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,219 mil bu. Some would suggest futures are not high enough to ration demand that much. USDA estimated World corn crop at 1,172 mmt vs 1,179 est in August and 1,219 ly. USDA raised Ukraine crop 1.5 mmt to 31.5 and China crop 3.0 to 274.0 mmt. USDA est World corn trade at 183 mmt vs 185 in August and 203 last year. US is near 58 mmt vs 63 ly, Brazil 47 mmt vs 44 ly, Argentina 41 vs 39 ly and Ukraine 13 vs 26 ly. There is still talk that Russia may soon decide not to renew the Ukraine export corridor deal. World corn imports are est at 178 mmt vs 181 ly. China 18 mmt, SE Asia 18 , Mexico 17, EU 19 vs 18 ly (this despite a lower crop), Japan 15 and Egypt 9. Trade estimates that USDA will keep the US crop rated 54 pct G/E with 4 pct of the crop harvested.
WHEAT
USDA left US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 610 mil bu. USDA left US 2022 wheat crop at 1,783 mil bu vs 1,646 last year. USDA left US wheat exports at 825 mil bu vs 800 ly. USDA continues to est US 2022/23 HRW carryout at 256 mil bu vs 353 ly, SRW 125 vs 94, HRS 127 vs 140, White 75 vs 52 and durum 27 vs 21. USDA est US 2022/23 HRW exports are 245 mil bu vs 317 ly, SRW 135 vs 112 and HRS 235 VS 209. USDA raised World wheat crop from 779.6 mmt to 783.9. USDA raised Russia crop from 88.0 mmt to 91.0, Ukraine from 19.5 to 20.5 and left World exports at 208.9. They est Russia at 42.0 vs 33.0 ly, Canada 26.0 vs 15.0 ly, Australia 25.0 vs 27.5, US 22.4 vs 21.7 and Argentina 13.0 vs 16.5. EU exports are 33.0.vs 31.9 despite talk of higher feeding due to lower corn crop. Wheat futures will depend upon money low, direction of US Dollar and US South plains weather. Trade estimates that 10 pct of US winter wheat crop is planted and 83 pct of US spring wheat is harvested.
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