Ag Market View for Nov 17.23
Corn futures ended lower. Key to futures will be Brazil weather. Some feel rains suggest US 2,200 mil bu carryout would be too much just like dry Brazil weather and a US 2,200 carryout would not be enough. Argentina Presidential candidate Melei is promising farmers end of taxation on Ag exports and elimination of Argentina Central Bank. Argentina est corn crop at 55 mmt 34 ly. 18 pct of the crop is planted. USDA also est Argentina corn exports near 41 mmt vs 23 ly. USDA also est Ukraine crop near 29.5 mmt vs 27 ly and exports at 20.0 vs 27.0 ly. Some feel they could increase exports from USDA est. US domestic corn basis remains firm on increase processing demand and reduced US and Brazil farmer selling. USDA also estimates World corn end stocks near 315 mmt vs 299 last year. US Midwest weather should be dry with temps below normal.
Soybean futures ended lower, below 13.50 SF and linked in part to continued profit taking after Mondays gains and unwillingness to add to higher prices going into key Brazil 2 week weather forecast. Next week, Brazil C/N could see showers. Key will be 2 week weather after next week. Some look for warm and dry weather to return while others could see more normal weather. US NOPA Oct soybean crush was a record and weekly US soybean export sales were a record There is talk that soymeal prices may be under further pressure if Argentina crop is normal. World Sep-Oct soybean exports were 24.5 mmt vs 22.8 ly. Brazil is 11.8 vs 7.7, US was 12.0 vs 11.9 and Argentina was -3 vs 2.9 ly. Sep-Oct soymeal exports were 8.1 mmt vs 9.4 ly. Brazil was 3.5 vs 3.6, US was 1.9 vs 1.6 and Argentina was 2.3 vs 4.0 ly.
Wheat futures ended lower. Talk of higher Russia supplies continues to offer resistance to futures. US HRW crop areas could see showers over next 5 days. The overall pattern is expected to continue to be drier than normal. Crude was higher and US Dollar was lower. USDA est World wheat crop at 781 mmt vs 789 ly. Russia is 90 vs 92 ly, EU is 134 vs 134 ly and US 49 vs 44 ly. Trade is est near 205 mmt vs 219 ly. Russia 50 vs 47, EU 37 vs 35 and US 19 vs 20. Nearby Minneapolis futures continue to gain on KC. There is an increase in demand for high protein wheat globally versus improving US HRW crop condition versus last year. Some estimate US 2024 wheat crop near 1,915 mil bu v s 1,812 ly. HRW is estimated at 735 vs 601 ly and SRW is estimated at 380 vs 449 ly. US 2024/25 wheat end stocks is est near 768 vs 700 this year and 580 in 2022/23.
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