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Ag Market View for May 3.24


Prices ranged from steady in old crop to $.03 higher in new crop.  July-24 peaked shortly after this AM reopen at $4.68, before settling in near unchanged.  Dec-24 closed higher however well off the morning highs.  Above normal moisture across the nation’s midsection will slow planting efforts thru next weekend.  Look for good progress to have been made this week in the ECB in Monday’s crop progress report.  Late yesterday the BAGE lowered their Argentine production forecast 3 mmt to 46.5 mmt, well below the USDA forecast of 55 mmt.  Corn harvest in Argentina advanced only 2% to 22% complete.  . 

QST corn futures chart on 5.3.24


Prices are mostly higher with beans up $.12 – $.16, meal was $7 – $8 higher, while oil was 15 – 20 lower.  July beans traded to a 1 month high, however stopped short of its 100 day MA at $12.22.  Nov-24 beans surged above its 100 day MA while settling just above $12.  July-24 meal surged to a 3 month high with next resistance is $380, which represent a 50% retracement of the price collapse from last Nov-23 high to Feb-24 low.  July-24 oil barely held above its recent low at 42.68.  Spot board crush margins rebounded $.07 for the day, however were off $.12 for the week.  Meal PV surged to 63.3%, the highest since Oct-23.  The USDA reported the sale of 122k mt (4.5 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer.  RGDS production this year has been projected to reach 22 mmt.  With roughly 25% of the crop still sitting in waterlogged fields an estimated 5.5 mmt remains at risk.  Conab’s 146.5 mmt forecast, or the USDA’s at 155 mmt.  All the uncertainty continues to drive market volatility and higher prices.  No change expected for Argentina yet, staying at 50 mmt.  After an assessment of the recent frost may bring the Argentine forecast down a bit in future reports.  The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 50 mmt, while reporting harvest progress advanced 10% to 36% complete. 

QST bean futures chart on 5.3.24


Prices were higher across all 3 classes today, however closed well off session highs.  Chicago is led the way up $.16 – $.19, KC was $.12 – $.14 higher, while MGEX was up $.04 – $.05.  Chicago July-24 stopped just shy of the April high at $6.33 ¼.  Same story with July-24 KC failing to take out $6.64.  Goldman Sachs is forecasting returns of 21% for its GSCI over the next 12 months providing some broad based commodity support. While portions of the US Southern plains received beneficial rains this week, a large pocket in SW KS, SE CO along with the OK/TX panhandles remain arid.  IKAR lowered their Russian wheat production forecast 2 mmt to 91 mmt, now slightly below the USDA est. of 91.5 mmt.  IKAR also lowered their export forecast 1.5 mmt to 50.5 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 52 mmt.  Algeria reportedly bought 200-300k mt of wheat between $248-$249/mt CF, with Ukraine and Russia likely involved. 

QST wheat futures chart on 5.3.24

Charts Source: QST


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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