Ag Market View for Mar 24.23
After making new lows for the week in soybeans and meal, prices were able to rebound and close higher across the board heading into the weekend. While the BAGE kept their Argentine soybean forecast unchanged at 25 mmt, the Rosario Grain Exchange is forecasting production at 27 mmt. RGE went on to state that record imports of 7.9 mmt would be necessary to support their domestic crush industry. The USDA already is forecasting Argentine soybean imports of 7.25 mmt based on production of 33 mmt, which is likely way to high. A Farm Futures survey from Mch 4th – 14th suggests 2023 soybean acres at 89.6 mil. acres well above the 87.5 mil. from the USDA Outlook conference in Feb. Spot board crush margins also rebounded nicely today, up $.19 to $1.37. Too soon the say whether US soybean prices have bottomed as Brazilian prices remain a $60 – $65 mt discount to the US with the threat of imports likely to keep rallies in check.
Prices closed $.07 – $.12 higher in another day of very choppy 2 sided trade. May-23 made a new high for the month at $6.45 as China continues to be a steady buyer of US corn. The USDA announced another sale of 204k tons (8 mil. bu.) to China. Announced sales this week reached 25 mil. bu. Next resistance for May-23 corn at the 50 and 100 MA’s at $6.57 and $6.60 respectively. The Farm Futures survey suggests corn acres in 2023 at only 87.7 mil. down from 88.6 mil. YA and well below the Feb-23 Outlook forecast of 91.0 mil. acres. The Russian Ag Ministry raised their export tax on corn to 2,885 roubles/mt, up from 2,647.
Prices soared in all 3 classes as Russia’s threat to temporarily halt or limit exports caused the short covering surge. May-23 KC surged thru resistance at the 50 day MA, while making a new high for the month. Today’s high at $8.61 ¼ stopped just shy of its 100 day MA resistance at $8.63 ¼. If Russia follows thru with the $275 mt limit for wheat exports they seemingly have established a global floor at recent lows. Time will tell. Russia’s Ag Ministry states the 93% of their winter crops are in good to satisfactory condition, down 2% from the previous month. They also raised their wheat export tax for the period ending April 4th to 5,410 roubles/mt from 5,328. KC May-23 inverse to Chicago May-23 reached a new high at $1.71 bu. before pulling back to close at $1.59 ½.
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