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Ag Market View for June 14.23


The soybean complex was mixed with July-23 down $.11, Aug-23 down $.03 while new crop contracts were within a $,01 of unchanged.  Soybean meal was down $3 – $8 while soybean oil was 20 – 50 higher.  July-23 soybean meal held support just above last month’s low of $386.30.  July-23 oil closed above its 100 day MA and its highest level since early April-23.  The EPS pushed back their announcement on biofuel blending quota’s until June 21st.  NOPA crush for May-23 is out tomorrow at 11 AM CST.  NOPA members are expected to have processed 176 mil. bu. in May, which if realized would be a record high for the month.  The range of est. is 172.9 – 179.2 mil. bu.  NOPA members crushed 173.2 mil. in April-23 and 171.1 mil. in May-22.  Soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is expected to fall to 1.942 bil. lbs., down from 1.957 bil. in April-23.  The range of estimates is 1.888 – 2.05 bil. lbs.  Export sales tomorrow are expected in a range of 12 – 30 mil. bu. soybeans, 150 – 400k tons soybean meal, and 0 – 10k tons soybean oil.     



Prices were down $.02 – $.05 with July-23 leading the way lower.  The overnight selloff in July-23 held support at its 50 day MA at $6.01 ½ before recovering.  Dec-23 appears to be consolidated between its 50 and 100 day MA’s.  While good rains did fall in the past 24 hours across dry areas in the eastern corn belt, much more is needed to relieve drought stress.  Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonally mild for much of the nation’s midsection.  The only extreme heat in the next week to 10 days appears confined to the deep south in Texas and areas of the gulf coast.  Heavy rains in the next week in the SE.  Normal to above normal rains in much of the midsouth and western corn belt extending north in the Dakota’s.  Much lighter totals across MN, WI, eastern IA, and northern IL and IN.  Ethanol production slipped to 1.018 tbd last week, down from 1.036 tbd the previous week.  Production was well below expectations and the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast.  With the lower than expected production, ethanol stocks slipped to 22.2 mil. barrels, down from 23.0 LW and also below expectations.  Overall gasoline demand last week at 9.193 mil. barrels per day, was -.3% from the previous week, however up 1.1% from same week YA.  Without a surge in weekly production rates the USDA will likely be forced to lower their current corn usage forecast of 5.250 bil. bu. by 25 – 50 mil. in the July-23 WASDE report.  Exports sales tomorrow expected at 10 – 24 mil. bu. 


Prices were lower across the board with KC and Chicago down $.06 – $.10, while MGEX is steady to $.03 lower.  The 50 day MA in July-23 Chicago continues to put a lid on rally attempts.  Texas is expected to dry out, enabling HRW wheat harvest to accelerate.   Taiwan’s Flour Millers Association reportedly bought 56k mt of US wheat.  The total included DNS priced at $341.35/mt FOB, HRW at $316/mt FOB, and soft white at $278/mt FOB.  While continuing to threaten not extending the BSGI when it expires next month, Russia also claims their own agricultural exports will increase 10% in 2023 from 2022.  Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 8 – 16 mil. bu.  The US share in global agricultural trade is expected to resume its long term downward trend in the 2023/24 MY with wheat at a record low of just below 10%. 

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