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Ag Market View for June 12.23


The soybean complex was mixed.  Old crop soybeans closed $.04 – $.14 lower while new crop was up $.04 – $.07.  The July/Nov spread has backed off $.18 ½ to $1.64.  Soybean meal was steady to $3 higher while soybean oil was down 20 – 60.  US export inspections at 5 mil. bu. were below expectations and below the pace needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.0 bil. bu.  YTD inspections at 1.794 bil. bu. are down 3% form YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 7%.  Malaysian palm oil production in May-23 at 1.517 mil. mt was above expectations of 1.45 mil mt and above the 1.46 mil. mt from May-22.  Month end stocks at 1.686 mil. mt was above expectations of 1.60 mil. mt. 

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Prices closed $.13 – $.19 higher with new crop contracts surging to new highs on the close.  Corn was quick to add weather premium following a weekend with disappointing rains while moisture needs are immediate.  Temperatures are expected to remain seasonally mild much of this week however heat begins to build this weekend and into next week.  Less than normal rains are expected across Northern IL, Iowa, and the northern plains this week causing drought conditions to intensify.  Concern for this year’s yields remain elevated. July-23 briefly pierced its 100 day MA resistance at $6.22 ¼ for the first time in 2 months before pulling back.  The late day surge in Dec-23 enabled it to close above its June high of $5.48.  Next resistance is its 100 day MA at $5.57.  Export inspections at 46 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and slightly above the 42 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the revised USDA export forecast of 1.725 bil.  8 mil. bu. were destined for China.  Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest at 2.2% is below the YA pace of 6.6%.  The US EPA is expected to release its final 2023 renewable fuel standard volumes by this Wed. the 14th.  Total 2022 volume was 20.63 bil. gallons with 5.63 bil. being advanced fuel and 2.76 bil. being biomass diesel.  The Ukraine Ag. minister reports corn exports thru June 12th have reached 27.7 mmt up 21% from YA.  Last Fri. the USDA raised their export forecast to 27 mmt for the MY that ends at the end of June-23. 


Prices are little changed in rather uneventful 2 sided trade.  Chicago and MGEX were $.02 – $.04 higher, while KC was steady to $.01 lower.  Export inspections at 9 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations.  Ukraine’s wheat exports thru June 12th have reached 16.1 mmt, down 14.4% from YA.  The USDA raised their export forecast 1 mmt to 16 mmt on Friday. 

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