Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Weather is back in the news. Over the next few week US north and east Midwest should see normal temps but normal to below rains. SE Midwest, south plains and Delta could be warm and dry. This could raise question about corn yields in the driest area. Our weather guy could see less rain in August which could lower final soybean yields. Our weather guy put out a special report suggesting July 15- August 14, SD, NE, W IA, MO, KS, OK, TX and AR drier and warmer than normal. A wider area including IA and IL could be dry a warm Aug 15-Sep 14. Weekly US soybean exports were 13. Season to date exports were 1,930 vs 2,128 ly. Key is China demand. Trade expects US soybean crop to be 62 pct G/E vs 62 last week. SU may have found support near 13.50. Next resistance is 14.25 then 15.00. Market volatility is expected to continue until more is known about US crop, China demand and money flow. Inflation topping or recession.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher but off session highs. Most of the negative news last week turned more friendly today. Most multinational grain companies do not expect a deal that would open Ukraine grain and sunoil exports. Time will tell with a meeting this week. Many are also worried about EU winter if Russia shuts off gas. The gas pipeline to EU was to reopen this week. Weather is back in the news. EU remains mostly dry and warm over the next 2 weeks. This could lower their corn supply and increase their need to import feed grains. Over the next few week US north and east Midwest should see normal temps but normal to below rains. SE Midwest, south plains and Delta could be warm and dry. This could raise question about corn yields in the driest area. Our weather guy could see less rain in August which could lower final soybean yields. Weekly US corn exports were near 42 mil bu, Season to date exports are 1,980 vs 2,376 last year. US corn demand is expected to increase through the remainder of 2022. Recent US Dollar strength weighed on commodity demand. Covid lockdown reduced China commodity import demand. Russia impact on EU gas supplies and US anti fossil fuel demand could tighten World energy supplies and support higher Crude and corn prices. US green fuel policy could help demand for US ethanol.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Lower US Dollar and dry EU weather may have helped futures bounce off last weeks lows. There remains strong overhead resistance due to overall slow demand for US wheat. Most of the negative news last week has turn more friendly today. Most multinational grain companies do not expect a deal that would open Ukraine grain. Time will tell with a meeting this week. Many are also worried about EU winter if Russia shuts off gas. The gas pipeline to EU was to reopen this week. Weekly wheat exports were 7 mil bu. Season to date exports were 77 vs 105 ly. World wheat demand should increase but import countries dealing with inflation and drawdown in capital.
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