Ag Market View for July 17.23
The soybean complex was mixed with soybeans down $.04 ½ in Aug. while new crop contracts were steady to $.02 higher. Meal was $1 – $2 higher, while oil was down 50 – 65 in very choppy session. Aug-23 oil made a new 7 month high before backing off. Overnight strength in Nov-23 soybeans stopped short of the July high at $13.91 ¾. With a lot of growing season still ahead and no wiggle room for lower yields I do not look for a steep selloff in soybeans. Overnight strength in soybean meal stalled out just above its 100 day MA before back tracking. NOPA crush at 11 AM CST on Monday expected to show members processed 170.6 mil. bu. in June-23, down from 177.9 mil. in May, however above the 164.7 in June-22 and if realized would be a record for the month. Oil stocks are forecast to fall to 1.816 bil. lbs., down from 1.872 bil. in May however above the 1.767 in June-22.
After a lower start overnight corn prices surged to a 2 week high closing near their highs of the day. Forecasts continue to tilt toward drought conditions deepening across the NC Midwest, northern plains, and Canadian prairies. Look for a continued gradual easing of drought conditions across the central and eastern corn belt, the question is whether it will be enough to offset yield loss across the north. No major overhead resistance for Dec-23 until the 50 day MA at $5.30 ¾. I’ve been skeptical Dec-23 can reach this price level without soybeans or wheat leading the way higher. I’m thinking today’s rally was more about weather and less about the unlikely extension of the BSGI, a pact that was likely already factored in as over. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast steady to 34 mmt. Harvest has reached 58%, up from 52% LW.
Prices surged higher with all 3 classes closing with gain between $.20 – $.23. Chicago Dec-23 surged to close above its 50 day MA at $6.72 ¾. Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $6.97 ½. KC Dec-23 surged to close above both its 50 and 100 day MA’s. Next resistance is the July high of $8.54 ¼. MGEX Dec-23 broke out to a new 3 week high. Next resistance is the June high at $8.98. I look for this level to be taken out as the market tilts toward lower spring wheat production on growing drought concerns in the northern plains. Talk that India may limit or ban the export of rice is also proving a boost the wheat values. India is by far the world leader in rice exports accounting for 39 – 41% over the last 3 marketing years. Sources indicate Algeria bought an unknown volume of Russian wheat at $269/mt. Russia’s Ag. Ministry raised the wheat export tax to 3,022.60 roubles/mt thru July 25th, up from 2,989.60/ mt previous.
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