Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Early trade was higher on a 2 week drier and warmer US Midwest forecast. Word that China will lockdown some areas due to new cases of Covid offered resistance. Noon GFS map added rains for central US Midwest also offered resistance. Our weather guy doubts rains will fall there this weekend. Fact USDA could lower US 2022 soybean acres and US 2022/23 carryout offered late sSupport. Higher US Dollar offered resistance to many commodities. Some had hHoped that 5 week drop in raw material prices was near end. New China C ovid lock downs weighed on commodity prices. Funds reduced their net soybean long from 200,000 to 94.000. Most of the selling was due to recession concerns. Weekly US soybean exports were near 13 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,917 mil bu vs 2,123 ly. USDA goal is 2,170 vs 2,261 ly. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,532 vs 4,640 in June. US 2022/23 carryout is est near 211 vs USDA 280.
CORN
Corn futures closed higher but off session highs. Early trade was higher on a 2 week drier and warmer US Midwest forecast. Word that China will lockdown some areas due to new cases of Covid offered resistance. Noon GFS map added rains for central US Midwest also offered resistance. Our weather guy doubts rains will fall there this weekend. Fact USDA could increase US 2022 corn acres and US 2022/23 carryout offered late resistance. Higher US Dollar offered resistance to many commodities. Some had hoped that 5 week drop in raw material prices was near end. New China Covid lock down weighed on commodity prices. Funds reduced their net corn long from 335,000 to 183.000.This due to improved US Midwest weather, USDA adding US corn acres and recession worries. Economist feel that global GDP will continue to struggle through 2022 and may be early 2023. Weekly US corn exports were near 36 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,937mil bu vs 2,334 ly. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,753 ly. Trade est US corn crop at 14,520 vs 14,460 in June. US 2022/23 carryout is est near 1,442 vs USDA 1,400. Corn futures continues to try to find bullish headlines to match strong cash basis. USDA is not expected to make big changes in their World supply and demand. Some feel they are too high in Ukraine corn exports and could be too high in EU crop and EU could need to import corn. USDA est global Corn exports at 182 mmt vs 196 ly. USDA est China corn imports at 18 mmt vs 23 ly. USDA est global corn imports at 176 mmt vs 179 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures had a very wide trading range. Overnight prices rallied on higher corn and soybean prices due to 2-3 week US Midwest forecast and dry EU weather. There is also concern about lower Black Sea ,EU and Argentina wheat exports. Most though doubt USDA will make needed changes to the global supply and demand on tomorrows report. Talk of concern over global economy sent Dollar higher and most commodities lower and wheat sharply lower. Weekly US wheat exports were near 11 mil bu. Season to date exports are 71 mil bu vs 85 ly. USDA goal is 775 vs 805 ly. Trade est US wheat crop at 1,745 vs 1,737 in June. US 2022/23 carryout is est near 638 vs USDA 627. Managed funds reduced their Chicago wheat long from 25,000 to a low near -20,000 to back to even. US SRW and HRW export prices are competitive to buyers. There has been some talk that China may have been a small buyer of US PNW white wheat and a few cargoes today of HRS. Key to tomorrows USDA report could be global numbers with wide ranges of guesses for World wheat end stocks. WU range was 8.53-9.40 ending near 8.56. KWU range was 9.07-9.98 ending near 9.13. MWU range was 9.51-10.44 ending near 9.63.
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