Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
SH ended near 14.14. Fact SH is over 14.00 in January suggest to some that global 2021/22 supply is declining while demand for US soybeans may be increasing. This weeks headlines was talk of lower Brazil 2022 soybean crop, US December NOPA soybean crush was record high, needed rains are falling across Argentina and China lowered lending rates to stabilize their economy. Soyoil found support from higher palmoil prices and talk of higher global biodiesel demand. USDA est SA soybean crop is near 194 mmt. Some feel final crop could be down another 14 mmt. Weekly US soybean export sales were 671 mt and 528 mt new crop. Total export commit is 43.1 mmt vs 57.3 ly. USDA goal is 55.8 vs 61.7 ly. China commit is near 24.9 mmt with 2.3 in unknown. There is talk China is buying US August beans. SN-SX inverse could suggest US 21/22 soybean carryout below USDA 350.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CH ended near 6.16. Trade over 6.17 was a positive technical signal. Fact CH traded over CK suggest demand pipeline might be in decline. This week, US ethanol production was up 4 pct from last month and up 11 pct from last year. Weekly US export sales were 1,091 mt. Total commit is 42.5 mmt vs 46.8 ly. USDA goal is 61.6 mmt vs 69.9 ly. China commit is near 12.4 mmt with 2.5 in unknown. Mexico is 12.5. There some rumors this week that China may be interested in buying 1.5 mmt US new crop corn as a good gesture before Phase 2 talks. There was some relief to the dry areas of Argentina but it remains hot and dry across Paraguay and S Brazil. In 2021, China imported a record amount of corn. Dry soils are beginning to move into parts of far west US Midwest and South Plains. SD reports soils 78 pct dry. NE 92 pct. Our weather guy suggest dryness could continue across US south plains and west Midwest through Feb. Fact USDA did not increase US 2021 crop in January as much as feared offered support. They raised US corn ethanol use but lowered exports. Some estimate Brazil and Argentina corn down 12 mmt from USDA Jan est of 169. Last years crops were near 137. Some now estimate US corn exports near 2,680 vs USDA 2,425. This and higher ethanol use could drop US carryout to 1,195 vs USDA 1,540.
WHEAT
Wheat is wheat. The on again off again traded may be limited to the latest Russia and Ukraine headline. Post US and Russia talks in Geneva may have relieved some of the War bulls for a while. This weighed on wheat futures today. KC is gaining on Chicago and MLS. There remains increase concern about dryness across US HRW south plains. USDA reported that 96 pct of TX, 81 KS, 95 OK. 100 CO and 92 pct NE soils are dry. Our weather guy sees continued dryness through Feb. NOAA 90 day forecast calls for below rains and above temps for US HRW. US wheat export commit is below pace to reach USDA goal. Weekly US wheat export sales were 380 mt. Total export commit is 16.5 mmt vs 21.3 ly. USDA goal is 22.4 vs 27.0 ly. World wheat buyers ae short. USDA est of EU and Russia wheat exports may be too high. EU wheat is the lowest to buyers especially vs US HRW. China imported a record 9.8 mmt of wheat in 2021 and continues to sell wheat from reserves. Much of this is for feeding.
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