Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher. SU traded over 15.00 on talk US exports are having trouble buying old crop US soybeans. Some estimate that soon, US soybean export shipments will increase and there could be more China buying US soybeans. Trade looks for a slight drop in US soybean yield on Friday but USDA could also lower US 2021/22 soybean exports. Domestic US soymeal basis is also firming. One crop scout now estimates that 21 pct of US soybean acres are below trend yield vs 9 last week. USDA report Friday.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CU tested 6.26. Still, talk of increase Ukraine corn exports could keep CU below key resistance near 6.35. Yield debate is raging. US corn trend yield is 181.5 so 5 bpa drop could suggest 176.5. One crop scout still feels 44 pct of US corn acres will yield above trend. One satellite crop estimating group est the US corn yield at 167.2. Another satellite group in EU est US corn yield at 178.8 using same data. Average trade est for the USDA yield as of August 1 is 175.9. USDA report is Friday. US farmer remains a reluctant seller. CZ rested 6.24. CZ23 tested 5.91. Most feel better US weather next week and more Ukraine corn exports could still offer resistance to futures despite drop in crop ratings.
WHEAT
Wheat rallied after USDA dropped US spring wheat crop rating more than expected. Tough though for wheat to rally without increase US export demand. WU is near 7.81 but did test 8.01. KWU is near 8.48 but did test 8.68. MWU is near 8.88 but did test 9.03.Talk of more Ukraine vessels being exports offers resistance to wheat. This despite talk that USDA may be 20 mmt to high on wheat exports (tightening World export supply) and that wheat in Ukraine elevators have suspect quality. Argentina weather remains dry. S Russia is dry. W EU could see some rain but then dry weather.
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