Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower on talk that US 2022 soybean crop could be record high. Traders are also concerned that Brazil 2023 soybean crop could also be record high. Finally, there is some concern that increase tension between US and China, increase China covid lockdowns and slower China economy could reduce their raw material imports including soybeans from US. Weekly US soybean exports were near 16 mil bu vs 14 last year. Season to date exports are 2,073 mil bu vs 2,182 ly. USDA goal is 2,160 vs 2,266 ly. Some could see final US soybean exports below USDA estimate. Trade estimates US soybean crop rating to be near 56 pct G/E vs 57 last week.
CORN
Corn futures are higher on talk that US 2022 corn crop could be lower than USDA August estimate. Traders are also concerned Ukraine exports may not reach recent estimates. Ukraine export corridor deal expires in October. Rumors last week were that Russia may not extend the humanitarian corridor. There is also talk that Ukraine may not be able to refill port elevators with corn due to logistic issues for future vessel loadings. Weekly US corn exports were near 27 mil bu vs 23 last year. Season to date exports are 2,149 mil bu vs 2,600 ly. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,747 ly. Some could see final US corn exports slightly below USDA estimate. Domestic US orn basis remains firm despite higher futures. There has been talk that there was increase farmer selling but some may soon run out of 2021 supplies. Trade estimates US corn crop rating near 54 oct G/E vs 55 last week. Last week’s Pro Farmer US corn yield near 168 vs USDA 175.4 shook up a few speculative shorts. Market may be overpriced but cash need corn and earliest harvest could be 9/11.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended sharply higher. WZ and KWZ gained on MWZ. There were a lot of rumors today on why wheat futures turned higher. Some thought that US SRW export basis firmed on good volume on either Pakistan or China interest in US wheat. There was no confirmation of this. Pakistan has seen record flooding especially in the south and requesting food aid. There has been talk of lower China rice crop and need for increase wheat imports. WZ tested the 50 DMA and the higher end of the recent trading range. There was speculation that Russia will not extend Ukraine export corridor deal that expires in October. Traders are also watching planting conditions for Russia, Ukraine and US 2023 winter wheat planting conditions. Weekly US wheat exports were near 19 mil bu vs 16 last year. Season to date exports are 184 mil bu vs 228 ly. USDA goal is 825 vs 800 ly. Russia has record supplies to sell while other World wheat exporters stocks to use ratio is record low. Trade est US spring wheat crop 64 pct G/E vs 64 last week. Harvest should be 52 pct vs 33 last week. US and Canada SW yields keep coming in above early expectations.
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