Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans futures traded in a wide range. Lower Pro Farmer soybean pod counts in IN and NE helped rally SX to near 14.84. USDA announced 517 mt US 2022/23 soybean to China. Some feel this is a result of positive soybean crush margins. Margins have now turned negative which could slow future buying. Some feel Pro Farmer tour could now find better pod counts in IL and IA. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales are est at -150/100 vs 97 last week and new crop 500-1,200 vs 1,320 last week. SX new highs but settles back near 200 DMA near 14.58. SMZ made new highs. US crushers still need to buy beans. US farmer may wait until harvest. BOZ had an outside day and closed below Tuesdays low.
CORN
Corn futures have traded both sides of Tuesdays close. Lower Pro Farmer corn yields in IN and NE helped rally CZ to near 6.71. Some feel Pro Farmer tour could now find better corn yields in IL and IA. Weekly US old crop corn export sales are est at -25/200 vs 99 last week and new crop 500-800 vs 750 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up slightly from last week and up almost 6 pct from last year. Stocks were up 1 pct from last week and up 12 pct from last year. Margins improved. There is talk that China 2022 corn crop could be lower than USDA August estimate but if China is going to buy corn for import they may wait for 2023 Brazil harvest. Matif corn traded in broad range but closed lower. Soil moisture/temperature maps show EU corn remains under stress and raising new concerns for winter planting of wheat and barley. Poland’s biggest chemicals company, has halted production of nitrogen fertilizers due to record gas prices.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Wheat has been finding short covering due to talk of lower Black Sea total exports and fact EU may need to increase feed wheat vs exports. This week China bought EU feed wheat. Russia is dry. West EU is also dry raising concern about 2023 wheat plantings. France has demand into N and W Africa which absence of farmer selling is keeping French premiums firm. Balkan cash has dropped 0n Russian declines. Some feel that Russian farmers may not sell while millers are paying better than the export market. Russia needs export its surplus. That could cap wheat prices. WZ traded Tuesdays range and settled near 20 DMA and 8.02. HRW basis weaker in spot market with more rail cars ahead of corn and soybean harvest. NSW harvest advancing with early indications are good yields.
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