Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean and soymeal futures ended higher. SX is over 14.50. SMZ is over 425. USDA dropped US soybean crop rating 1 pct to 57 G/E. Trade bought US soybean futures after Pro Farmer surveyor’s found less soybean pod count in SD and OH than last year. Bears are looking for much higher counts in IA and IL. Sunday and Monday could see finishing rains across parts of west Midwest. NE, SD, IA and MO could see .50-2.00 inches of rains. East Midwest will be dry. Crushers still bidding up for nearby soybeans and offering soymeal at higher basis. Some feel normal US harvest could send SX back below 14.00. USDA announced 110 mt US 2022/23 soybeans were sold to China. This is their first purchase since August 10.
CORN
Corn futures ended sharply higher. Spec buying increased after Pro Farmer participants found lower SD and OH corn yields than expected. Trade now focusing on IN and NE yields. Bears are looking for much higher yields in IA and IL. CZ is now above 6.50. USDA dropped US corn crop rating 2 pct to 55 G/E. Pro Farmer surveyor’s estimated SD corn yield at 118.4 vs 151.4 last year and OH 174.2 versus 185.0 last year. Crushers, feeders and exporters continue to bid up for corn. Rains in US south could delay early harvest there. Still US fall forecast calls for normal harvest weather. Futures plus basis is getting close to where US farmers could add to 2022 crop sales.. New debate on US grain movement with number of barges down and aging fleet. This is beginning to raise rail importance and freight. Argentina farmers face uncertainty before 2023 crop season and are waiting for government economic package. Traders eye will be on Ukraine and Independence Day.
WHEAT
Wheat is up following higher Matif wheat futures and higher corn and soybean futures.. US farmers should find better soil moisture to plant US 2023 winter wheat crop. Russia still offering wheat for export at lowest World prices. Egypt secured 240 mt of Russia wheat in an unannounced tender. Still questions on pace of Black Sea exports due to supply chain challenges. China may have bought French feed wheat and may be looking for US, Canada and Australia wheat. European Drought Observatory said that Europe’s worst drought in 500 years could continue into November. Concern is growing ahead of tomorrow’s Ukraine Independence Day.
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