Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean and soyoil futures ended lower. USDA estimates US 2022 soybean acres near 88.3 vs 87.2 last year. USDA yield is 51.5 or a crop of 4,505 mil bu vs 4,435 ly. USDA est 2022/23 soybean crush at 2,245 vs 2,205 ly. US cash soybean crush margins are near 340 cents. This could suggest a higher total crush. USDA est soybean exports at 2,135 vs 2,170 ly. USDA est US 2022/23 carryout near 230 vs 215 ly. Key remains final crop size and export demand. Some feel US yield could drop to 50.5 which could lower
Supply by 85 mil bu. USDA est World 2022/23 soybean crush at 327.1 mmt vs 313.7 last year. USDA est World 2022/23 soybean exports at 168.9 mmt vs 154.1 ly. Brazil 89.0 vs 81.0 ly. US 58.1 vs 59.1 ly. China imports are est at 98.0 vs 90.0 ly. This leaves World end stocks at 99.6 vs 88.7 ly. All of this suggest SU near 14.00 may be too low until South America 2023 harvest.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Concern about demand is limiting any buying under the market. Speaker of the House visit to Taiwan is raising concern about China reaction and imports demand for US goods. Russia is now openly accusing US of aiding Ukraine. CU traded below 6.00 support and could now fill the gap near 5.80. USDA left US corn crop rating at 61 pct G/E. North and east states crops improved while west and SW states crops declined. 2 week US Midwest forecast suggest good conditions north and east but dry southwest. USDA estimates US 2022 corn acres near 81.9 vs 93.4 last year. USDA yield is 177.0 or a crop of 14,505 mil bu vs 15,115 ly. USDA est US 2022/23 ethanol use at 5,375 vs 5,375 ly. USDA est corn exports at 2,400 vs 2,450 USDA est US feed use near 5,350 vs 5,600 ly. USDA est US 2022/23 carryout near 1,470 vs 1,510 ly. Key remains final crop size. Some feel US yield could drop to 174.0 which could lower supply by 245 mil bu. USDA est World 2022/23 domestic use at 1,185 mmt vs 1,199 last year. USDA est World 2022/23 corn exports at 182.5 mmt vs 199.2 ly. US 60.9 vs 62.2 ly. Brazil 47.0 vs 44.5 ly. Arg 41.0 vs 39.0 ly. Ukraine 9.0 vs 24.0 ly. This leaves World end stocks at 312.9 vs 312.3 ly. All of this suggest CU near 5.90 may be too low until South America 2023 harvest.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Negative geo political and economic news continues to weigh on wheat futures. Concern about demand is limiting any buying under the market. WU failed to retest resistance near 8.08 and traded back below yesterdays low near 7.81. USDA increased US wheat crop rating at 70 pct G/E. One cargo of off grade Ukraine corn has now dropped Wheat futures 73 cents from recent high. Speaker of the House visit to Taiwan is raising concern about China reaction and imports demand for US goods. Russia is now openly accusing US of aiding Ukraine. USDA estimates US 2022 wheat acres near 47.1 vs 46.7 last year. USDA yield is 47.3 or a crop of 1,781 mil bu vs 1,646 ly. USDA est US 2022/23 food use at 964 vs 962 ly. USDA est wheat exports at 800 vs 804 ly. USDA est US feed use near 80 vs 100 ly. USDA est US 2022/23 carryout near 639 vs 660 ly. USDA est World 2022/23 domestic use at 784 mmt vs 790 last year. USDA est World 2022/23 wheat exports at 205.4 mmt vs 199.2 ly. US 21.7 vs 21.9 ly. Russia 40.0 vs 33.0 ly. Canada 25.0 vs 15.0 ly. EU 35.5 vs 29.5 ly. Australia 24.0 vs 27.5. Ukraine 10.0 vs 18.8. Argentina 13.5 vs 16.5 ly. This leaves World end stocks at 267.5 vs 280.1 ly. Some feel USDA est of Russia and EU exports may be too high. All of this suggest WU near 7.75 may be too low into 2023
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