Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures found support after USDA reported increase China new crop sales. Good US weekly soymeal sales also offered support. Next week is the annual Pro Farmer crop tour. Group from NE east should start out with lower crop but should improve in MN and N IA. Some feel C IL crop are down vs trend. Group from OH west should find better IN crop but C IA crops may be down vs trend. NOAA est above average tropical storm season. Some fear rain in Delta slowing harvest and reducing quality. Others look for more activity is the east. Low pressure in east could suggest an early end to MN, WI and MI crops. US soybean export commit is 2,188 mil bu vs 2,281 ly. New crop commit is a record 626 mil bu.
CORN
Corn futures found support after USDA reported increase China new crop sales. Next week is the annual Pro Farmer crop tour. Group from NE east should start out with lower crop but should improve in MN and N IA. Some feel C IA crop are down vs trend. Group from OH west should find better IN crop but C IL crops may be down vs trend. NOAA 90 day forecast looked good for harvest. US corn export commit is 2,399 mil bu vs 2,768 ly. SW US corn basis firming due to lower crops there. Approaching US harvest keeps a lid on futures. Matif new crop corn is down 30 euros this week against 10 at the CBOT. The rains came too late for any improvement to the EU crop, and last week’s EU imports are starting to show the need for a major import program. French corn is $336 against Balkan corn at $340 both are buying demand that they do not have. Ukraine corridor shipments of corn now total 500 mt. Newswire headline have reports of increase corridor exports, without ceasefire agreement, and/or de-militarization of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Bulls need some more demand and less reports of perfect US crop. Bears in control until Sep USDA report and harvest lows.
WHEAT
Matif wheat is down 22 euro since Friday, German/Baltic premiums are even lower. French premiums have been mixed but 11.5 protein getting increasingly tough to find. Bulls are struggling to find the bearish argument; the Ukraine export corridor has shipped just 40 mt of wheat since it began, with increasing talk of winter acreage losses of 30-60%; Russia’s current annualized export pace remains around 30 mmt against the USDA’s 42 mmt.. Russian farmers are lobbying against the export tax as crop sizes grow and stocks build. India raised their crop slightly but they kept the export ban in place. Finding vessels for Ukraine remains very expensive which pressure prices. Iraq passing on US wheat tender started a selloff. US south plains rains added pressure but weather turns dry after the rains. Headline that US will buy 150 mt Ukraine wheat to support UN deal did not help prices either. Drop in prices on increase open interest but low volume. Appears increase soybean buying/prices triggers selling of wheat.
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