Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Sept soybean futures ended higher and near 15.35. Range was 14.83 to 15.37. Almost the entire range some thought we might settle in from now until the Sep USDA report. Next 2 weeks US Midwest weather will also dictate price ranges. SMU tested recent high. BOU made a new high for the move and tested the last moving average resistance. USDA August soybean yield was higher than expected. USDA increased US 2021/22 soybean carryout 10 mil bu due to lower exports. USDA 2022 soybean crop is now 4,531 mil bu vs 4,435 ly. USDA 2022/23 soybean carryout is 245. Higher crop and carryin is partially offset by higher exports? USDA 2022/23 World soybean end stocks are now 101.4 mmt vs 89.7 ly. Most of increase is in 2023 South America crops. USDA still estimates China 2022/23 soybean imports at 98.0 mmt vs 90.0 this year. USDA still est World 2022/23 soybean crush near a record 327 mmt vs 313 ly and exports 169 mmt vs 153 last year.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CU ended near 6.39 with a range of 6.16 to 6.40. CZ ended near 6.42. CZ23 ended near 5.99. USDA sent traders mixed corn signals with US 2022 corn yield down, 2021/23 US corn carryout up and US 2022//23 corn carryout lower. USDA August corn yield was lower than expected. USDA does use farmer survey which over the last 3 years has been lower than the final. USDA increased US 2021/22 corn carryout 20 mil bu due to lower FSI? USDA 2022 corn crop is now 14,359 mil bu vs 15,115 ly. USDA 2022/23 corn carryout is 1,388. Lower crop partially offset by lower feed use and exports. USDA 2022/23 World corn end stocks are now 306.8 mmt vs 311.8 ly. Most of drop is in US and EU. EU corn crop was lowered to 60.0 mmt from 68. Some are as low as 50.0. USDA est US 2021/22 corn feed use at 5,600 mil bu vs 5,603 last year. Their 2022/23 feed use was lowered 25 mil bu to 5,325. USDA est US 2021/22 ethanol use at 5,350 mil bu vs 5,033 last year. Their 2022/23 ethanol use is 5,375. USDA est US 2021/22 exports at 2,450 mil bu vs 2,747 last year. Their 2022/23 exports were lowered 25 mil bu to 2,375.
WHEAT
Well, wheat is still wheat. WU ended near 8.06. After the USDA report, WU dropped back below the 20 day near 7.93 only to close above it. Still looks like a range of 7.50-8.50. KWU dropped back below the 20 day near 8.62 only to close above it. Still looks like a range of 8.00-9.00. MWH dropped back below the 20 day near 9.04 only to close above it. Still looks like a range of 8.50-9.50. USDA August US wheat crop is 1,783 mil bu vs 1,781 last month and 1,646 ly. USDA dropped US 2022/23 wheat carryout 29 mil bu due to higher exports. USDA 2022/23 World wheat end stocks are 267.3 mmt vs 276.3 ly. USDA raised Russia wheat crop to 88.0 and export to 42.0. Russia July wheat export were only 1.7 mmt vs 5.7 ly. USDA lowered EU wheat crop 2 mmt to 132.1 and increased China 3 mmt to 138.0. They lowered India wheat crop 3 mmt to 103.0 but kept exports at 6.5?
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